AFL Grand Final 2022 Tips – First Goal Predictions

The first goal scorer is one of the most popular bet types on the AFL Grand Final and Betseeker have crunched the numbers to help find you a winner this Saturday.

Best BetsMatch Preview & Best Bets
Player Props / SGMsPlayer Prop & Same Game Multi Tips
Norm Smith MedalNorm Smith Medal Tips

While the betting market tends to be dominated by forwards, in recent years it has generally been midfielders that have kicked the first snag, with 11 of the last 13. Forwards have kicked only two in that time.

The current TopSport market. Forwards everywhere!

The position of the first goal scorer in Grand Finals dating back to 1980 is as follows: 


The 2022 decider features two players who have previously kicked the first goal in a Grand Final: Luke Parker from Sydney, who scored the opener in 2016 against the Dogs, and Jeremy Cameron from Geelong, who kicked the first in 2019 when playing for GWS.

These teams have both been great first goal kicking teams in 2022, Geelong ranked #1 with 15 and Sydney equal #2 with 14.

Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins have each booted three first major for the Cats this season, while four Swans have each recorded two: Errol Gulden, Isaac Heeney, Tom Papley and Luke Parker.

First Goal Scorer Tips

Luke Parker
First Goal Scorer - AFL Grand Final

Luke Parker fits the mould of goal kicking midfielders who have kicked the first snag in recent years and he has done it twice already this season. The veteran also kicked the first goal in the 2016 decider, so he is capable under pressure. Paul Salmon and Alistair Lynch have both bagged the first goal in a Grand Final on two occasions.

Patrick Dangerfield
First Goal Scorer - AFL Grand Final

Danger looks to be in supreme form coming into the Grand Final and bagged the first goal in the Preliminary Final against the Lions, his second opening snag for the season despite playing only 17 games. He will be in the middle at the first bounce and has proven to be a dangerous goal kicker coming out of the centre square.

Previous AFL Grand Final First Goal Scorers

The Grand Final first goal scorers since 1980 are listed below:

1980: Dale Weightman, Richmond, Midfield

1981: Mark Williams, Collingwood, Midfield

1982: Wayne Johnston, Carlton, Forward

1983: Richard Loveridge, Hawthorn, Forward

1984: Leigh Matthews, Hawthorn, Forward

1985: Dermott Brereton, Hawthorn, Forward

1986: Jason Dunstall, Hawthorn, Forward

1987: Wayne Johnston, Carlton, Forward 

1988: Peter Schwab, Hawthorn, Midfield 

1989: Gary Ablett Snr, Geelong, Forward 

1990: Paul Salmon, Essendon, Forward

1991: Peter Sumich, West Coast, Forward

1992: Trevor Poole, Geelong, Midfield

1993: Paul Salmon, Essendon, Forward

1994: Tony Evans, West Coast, Midfield

1995: Craig Bradley, Carlton, Midfield

1996: Tony Lockett, Sydney, Forward

1997: Jason Heatley, St Kilda, Forward

1998: John Blakey, North Melbourne, Midfield

1999: Brett Ratten, Carlton, Midfield

2000: James Hird, Essendon, Midfield

2001: Alastair Lynch, Brisbane, Forward

2002: Anthony Rocca, Collingwood, Forward

2003: Alastair Lynch, Brisbane, Forward

2004: Josh Carr, Adelaide, Midfield

2005: Mark Nicoski, West Coast, Bench

2006: Ashley Hansen, West Coast, Forward

2007: Cameron Mooney, Geelong, Forward

2008: Tom Lonergan, Geelong, Forward

2009: Max Rooke, Geelong, Forward

2010: Darren Jolly, Collingwood, Ruck

2010: Tyson Goldsack, Collingwood, Defender

2011: Travis Varcoe, Geelong, Midfield

2012: Xavier Ellis, Hawthorn, Midfield

2013: Jack Gunston, Hawthorn, Forward

2014: Josh Kennedy, Sydney, Midfield

2015: Luke Shuey, West Coast, Midfield

2016: Luke Parker, Sydney, Midfield

2017: Rory Sloane, Adelaide, Midfield

2018: Travis Varcoe, Collingwood, Midfield

2019: Jeremy Cameron, GWS, Forward

2020: Dion Prestia, Richmond, Midfield

2021: Christian Petracca, Melbourne, Midfield

Avatar photo
Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.