AFL Tips – Hawthorn v St Kilda – Round 17 2025

The Hawks chase a fourth straight win when they meet the Saints at Marvel Stadium on Saturday night.

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Best Bet

Hawthorn -18.5

Line

$1.90

Expect the Hawks to have too much polish for the struggling Saints.

Hawthorn have covered the line in 10 of their last 11 games against bottom six sides, missing only once by six points against West Coast. Their average winning margin against bottom six sides this year is 46 points.

They tore through North last week, dominating the clearance battle 44-30. That came against a Roos side that had been the league’s best clearance team over the previous five rounds.

The Saints are coming off three straight losses to top eight teams, going down by 12 to Fremantle, 34 to Collingwood and 72 to the Bulldogs. They’ve only covered the line once in their last six games at Marvel.

Josh Weddle is out for the Hawks but they regain James Worpel and captain James Sicily.

With the Saints on a six-day break back from Perth and Hawthorn covering in six of eight with a rest advantage, the Hawks should be too sharp again here.

Same Game Multi

Hawthorn -18.5, M.Chol 2+ Goals, J.Ginnivan Anytime Goal, J.Ward 20+ Disposals

TBC

Mabior Chol has a good record against poor teams, kicking 2+ in seven straight versus lower ranked sides. He could have another big game with the Saints lacking height in defence.

Jack Ginnivan has kicked a goal in each of his last nine at Marvel.

Josh Ward has had 20+ in seven straight.

Value Bet

Hawthorn 40+

Margin

$3.20

The Hawks have won eight of their last nine games against bottom six sides by more than 40 points. Some larger margins are certainly worth playing too.

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