AFL Grand Final 2022 Tips – Norm Smith Medal Predictions

The Norm Smith Medal is given to the player judged best on ground in the Grand Final and is always a hotly debated award, as well as providing plenty of opportunity from a punting perspective. Here are our picks for the Norm Smith Medal in the 2022 AFL Grand Final.

Norm Smith Medal History

Punters can absolutely get a leg up on the bookies with a quick look at how the Norm Smith Medal has been awarded previously.

1. Back the mids

Like every other major AFL award, the midfielders have dominated the Norm Smith Medal, particularly in recent years. The last five awards have gone to mids – including three to Richmond star Dustin Martin – as well as 15 of the 23 this century.

2. Experience counts

Since 2000, only 4 of the 23 Norm Smith Medalists had played fewer than 100 games prior to winning the award – Chris Judd (2004), Steve Johnson (2007), Scott Pendlebury (2010) and Jason Johannisen (2016). Judd was also the youngest winner this century at 21 years old.

3. Avoid the talls at all costs

The Norm Smith Medal has been awarded in every Grand Final since 1979. Remarkably, just two award winners have been taller than 192cm in that time – Brian Lake in 2015 and Simon Madden all the way back in 1985.

4. Hit the scoreboard

A player’s Norm Smith Medal chances increase if they are able to jag a goal in the Grand Final. The last five winners have all kicked a snag and since 2000, just 6 of 23 have not kicked a goal.

5. Winners get medals

Obviously the winning team is much more likely to produce the best player on the ground, so if you are leaning toward one team to win, it’s probably where your should be putting your hard-earned for the Norm. Only four players since 1979 have won the award in a losing team.

Norm Smith Medal Tips

With a goal-kicking experienced midfielder from the winning team the profile for a Norm Smith Medalist, let’s look at a few tips for this year’s award.

Geelong

Patrick Dangerfield

Norm Smith Medal

$7.50

The deserved favourite, Dangerfield looks ready to explode in this Grand Final. Coming off a best on ground performance last weekend where he had 28 touches and kicked 2.2, the 302-game veteran is the standout play for the Cats. If the decision is close for the judges, you can be sure he will get the lean given his off-field standing in the game.

Cam Guthrie

Norm Smith Medal

$15

If Danger has a down game, Guthrie is the clear next pick for Geelong. The 229-gamer kicks a goal in around half of his matches and is a very well-rounded player. Expect him to win his fair share of clearances, lay plenty of tackles and set up a lot of goals with his great kicking. If he can jag a goal, he’ll be right in contention.

Gary Rohan

Norm Smith Medal

$51

We are absolutely breaking with the Norm Smith profile here but as explained in our Same Game Multi tips, we’re backing Gary Rohan for a big Grand Final. He’s $51 for a reason, but he enters in excellent form and is worth a nibble at the price. He’ll also benefit from a great narrative if he can produce a big game, having been a well-publicised underachiever in finals early in his career.

Sydney

Luke Parker

Norm Smith Medal

$12

Midfielder – check. Goal-kicker – check. Experienced – check. Luke Parker ticks all the boxes for a Norm Smith Medalist and is the best play for the Bloods. The Sydney co-captain has kicked a goal in each final this year and is clearly the top clearance-winner for the Swans in 2022. If Sydney cause the upset, you can be sure Parker will be amongst the best.

Chad Warner

Norm Smith Medal

$18

Chad Warner is a rising star of the competition and while he would be the most inexperienced Norm Smith Medal winner ever, he averages the most goals of any Sydney midfielder, as well as the most metres gained and score involvements of any player on their list. Warner is a real eye-catcher and a great bet for the medal.

Tom Papley

Norm Smith Medal

$21

Papley is enjoying arguably his best career season and is a reliable goal-kicker who increasingly has spent stints in the midfield this year. The 26-year-old is Sydney’s fire-starter and is guaranteed to play with his typical passion and ferocity on Saturday. He’s kicked 9 goals in his last four finals.

Previous AFL Norm Smith Medal Winners