AFL Tips – Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide – Round 17 2025

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Best Bet

Brisbane Lions +26.5

Line

$1.90

We’re again leaning into one of this season’s best betting trends.

The Lions have been costly as favourites all year. Underdogs have covered in their last seven games and Brisbane have failed to cover in 12 of their past 14 at home.

For whatever reason, Chris Fagan’s side seem to sleepwalk through games against bottom ten teams. Their average winning margin against that group is just 18 points this season – the lowest of any current finalist. The rest of the top seven are averaging 42.

Port are coming off their best month of the year, including a dominant win over Carlton last week. They’ve now won three of their last four and have covered in three straight games against teams above them on the ladder.

Jack Lukosius is expected to return for just his third game at his new club, giving some extra support to the red-hot Mitch Georgiades. Darcy Gardiner and Callum Ah Chee are both a chance to come back from illness.

The Lions’ poor record as favourites is impossible to ignore. Back Port to stay close.

Same Game Multi

Power +26.5, C.Rayner Anytime Goal, C.Rozee & W.Ashcroft 25+ Disposals

TBC

Cam Rayner has kicked nine goals in his last five games.

Connor Rozee has hit 25 in ten straight playing off half-back, while Will Ashcroft has had 25 in eight of his last nine.

Value Bet

Brisbane 1-24

Margin

$3.40

Brisbane’s largest win at home this year came all the way back in Round 2 against bottom of the table West Coast. The margin was just 21 points. The numbers say this will remain close, so a narrow win for the home side looks well worth a bet.

Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2025 AFL season.