AFL Tips – Geelong v Richmond – Round 17 2025

The Tigers head down the highway to face Geelong in what looks like a total mismatch on paper.

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Best Bet

Geelong -59.5

Line

$1.90

A ten-goal line is never much fun to bet into, but this is still the toughest trip in footy and Richmond look just about spent in 2025.

Kardinia Park has been a graveyard for bottom four teams. Since 2010, only 34% have covered the line there, with an average losing margin of 63 points. For bottom two sides, that drops to 29% and 72 points.

The Tigers come in off two heavy losses, smashed by 68 against Adelaide and 79 by the Bulldogs. Tom Lynch is suspended, leaving just one player in the team with more than 11 goals for the season. Geelong have seven.

Young teams like Richmond often fade late in the year, and it’s been a profitable long-term play to back top four sides to cover against bottom four teams post-Round 17. That angle has hit at 62% since 2010.

The Cats smashed Essendon by 95 two games ago and beat Port by 76 in Round 10. A third blowout in their last seven games looks likely.

Same Game Multi

Cats -59.5, J.Cameron 4+ Goals, T.Stengle 2+ Goals, T.Stewart 20+ Disposals

TBC

Jeremy Cameron has kicked 4+ in four of his last five games, while Tyson Stengle has kicked 2+ in four straight against bottom four teams.

Richmond give up more disposals than any other team and half backs in particularly have been racking up the touches. Tom Stewart has had 20+ in five straight at GMHBA.

Value Bet

Tom Stewart

30+ Disposals

$5.75

As above, half-backs have been gathering plenty of pill against the Tiges, with Wayne Milera, Nick Blakey and Lachie Ash all having big games in the last month. It’s been some time since Stewart has hit 30 but he won’t get a better chance than this to hit the mark again.

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