The 2025 State of Origin series has a decider with Accor Stadium to host the third and deciding game with New South Wales heavily favoured to win a second straight series.
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Best Bet
Queensland stunned New South Wales in Game II on the back of Ashley Klein and the 10-2 penalty count that levelled the series.
Under no circumstances should the Maroons have won that match looking at all other statistics. The Blues had 55% of possession. They ran for 158 more metres. They an for 111 more post-contact metres.
The Maroons improved their tackle busting and play-the-ball speed but it was only the penalty count that got them home. Once again the scoreline flattered the Maroons.
The scoreline in the opener was completely flattering to the Maroons. The Blues missed four shorts at goal and blew numerous opportunities. The stats were damning for the Maroons with NSW winning possession 53-47, losing the metre-race by 328m and missing 49 tackles to 19.
While there is little doubt that the Blues are the more talented team, this line looks too big for a decider.
While Billy Slater has made some questionable calls, he has pulled the right rein by plumping for Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow at fullback while the SOS to Josh Papalii is a godsend that the market is significantly overrated.
Laurie Daley, as he has shown far too often, has been ridiculously conservative keeping the same team including the ridiculous selection of Stefano Utoikamanu.
Queensland have won 11 of the last 15 Game 3s including four of the last six in Sydney. They have also won seven of the last nine deciders.
The betting in this looks off. The line is too big. Bet the big plus in a game that projects as being close.
Same Game Multi
Stephen Crichton gets the gun matchup on Valentine Holmes’ side of the field and can make it a try in back-to-back games.
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has 11 tries in nine Origins and gets to play his favoured fullback position for the first time.
Value Bet
In the last 18 Origin matches, a spine member has won Man of the Match honours on 14 occasions. If the Blues win, all eyes should be on Dylan Edwards with Luai and Robson little hope given their roles and Nathan Cleary carrying an injury. On the Maroons side, a Munster win is unlikely given we don’t see back-to-back winners. Harry Grant looks the best value. He plays big minutes, is important to the attack and gets through a mountain of work. He is big odds.
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