The last Saturday in September has arrived with the AFL Grand Final returning to the MCG for the first time in three years. Which of Geelong or Sydney will take home the flag? Read on for our full 2022 AFL Grand Final tips and preview.
|Geelong -11.5 ($1.90)
|Over 164.5 ($1.90)
|Geelong 40+ ($4.50)
|Player Props / SGMs
|Player Prop & Same Game Multi Tips
|Norm Smith Medal
|Norm Smith Medal Tips
|First Goal Tips
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Geelong have been the AFL’s best team all year and are a strong bet to win their first flag in 11 years.
Both teams enter this game in sublime form, the Cats winning 15 straight and the Swans, nine. Geelong’s streak, however, has been more impressive, covering the line in an extraordinary 9 of their last 10 games. No team has performed better against the line in a single season since Richmond in 2017, with Chris Scott’s team covering in 17 of 24 games. The Swans are 12-12 for the year.
There’s little to separate the teams elsewhere on betting trends. Geelong have covered in 8 of their last 9 as favourites, the Swans in 11 of 13 as outsiders. Both have performed well at the ‘G, each covering at 70%+ at the home of footy. Both cover at over 55% off a win over the last four seasons.
Geelong’s smashing of Brisbane last Saturday exemplified everything that is great about this team. The Lions bombarded the Cats’ defence early in the first quarter, recording nine inside 50s inside the first 10 minutes. The Cats’ rock solid defence conceded just a single goal and had five intercept possessions. From there, Patrick Dangerfield exploded, displaying some of his best form in years. With the midfield battle looking fairly even – the Cats ranked 8th for average clearances and the Swans 10th – a resurgent Danger shapes as an almighty challenge for John Longmire.
Sydney’s path to victory is through their defensive pressure, for which they are ranked second behind Collingwood in 2022. The Pies seriously challenged Geelong early in their qualifying final three weeks ago with their relentless pressure and the Swans will need to bring that heat for four quarters here if they are any chance to cause the upset.
As it stands, the Cats are too experienced and too structurally sound to let this slip. The Swans look set to contend for many years, but this is Geelong’s year and they should record a richly-deserved 10th VFL/AFL premiership.
The 164.5 point total looks a tricky bet, but the numbers suggest the over is the play.
The last four Geelong v Sydney games have all gone over, as have 17 of Geelong’s 24 games this year. Swans games are 12-12 for 2022, but have gone over in 6 of the last 9.
The early weather forecast predicted showers to fall during game time, but that looks less likely now. Dry weather day games at the MCG have gone over 32 of 48 times in 2022.
There’s a lean to the overs, but I wouldn’t be rushing to throw it into a same game multi.
Large margins are extremely common in Grand Finals and looks great value here with our confidence in the Cats.
Five of the last eight deciders have seen a 40+ point margin at an average of 47.25 points. Three of those were decided by 60+ points.
Once the back of a team is broken in a Grand Final, there’s not much left to play for. The Cats are 16-4-2 in first halves this year with a percentage of 149.9. Sydney are 13-9 with a percentage of 114.8. If the Cats can put a margin on the Swans early, this could get ugly for the Bloods.