With Novak Djokovic out of the 2022 US Open, the field is far more open but the 2021 Champion is in prime position to retain his title.
Champion
The last three US Open winners were runners-up of the Australian Open earlier that year – that’s not entirely the reason I’m going with Daniil Medvedev, but his recent form makes the $3.35 too good to refuse.
The best tournament indicators on the men’s draw for the US Open are Montreal and Cincinnati, and although he lost in the Round of 32 against Nick Kyrgios in Montreal coming off a victory in Los Cabos the week prior, he reached the Semi Finals at Cincinnati which has him trending in the right direction for the US.
While he enters the tournament as the reigning champion, while also reaching the 2019 Final, Medvedev does have a tough draw with Kyrgios a potential 4th round match-up and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Quarters, but the Russian is in the box seat to win his second US Open title.
Runner Up
The 21-year-old Italian might have drifted into the shadow of Carlos Alcaraz this year, but Jannik Sinner’s 2022 form on the hard court makes this US Open a genuine breakout opportunity.
Sinner has the second-best record on hard court this year with a 19-5 record going at 79.2%, just behind the 20-2 record of Rafael Nadal.
He enters this with a mixed lead-up losing in the Round of 16 at both Montreal and Cincinnati, but featuring in the Alcaraz quarter of the draw should work in his favour after beating the Spaniard in the Final at Umag recently on clay – Alcaraz’s preferred surface.
Semi Finalists
Looks like Taylor Fritz has moved on after what should have been a deep Wimbledon run, unable to get past an injured Rafael Nadal in a five set Quarter Final. The American had a nice run at Cincinnati in the lead-up reaching the Quarter Final and could provide the Flushing Meadows crowd something to cheer about.
Has proven he’s more than capable on hard court with a similar story to that of Wimbledon in the Australian Open Round of 16, where he outplayed Stefanos Tsitsipas for majority of the match going down in five.
Featuring in Quarter 2 with the erratic Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini still finding his feet post-injury, and clay-courter Casper Ruud, this gives Fritz a huge opportunity for a late run and his first Grand Slam Semi Final appearance.
The clay court GOAT is 20-2 on hard courts this year including winning the Australian Open, and simply can never be ruled out.
The primary concern for the Spaniard is how his body will hold up, however. Nadal was forced to withdraw from the Wimbledon Semi Final and has only played one match since – losing to Borna Coric in Cincinnati.
Nadal will face some tricky opponents throughout the tournament – potentially veteran Fabio Fognini in the second-round, Miomir Kecmanovic in the third and the physical Frances Tiafoe in the fourth. He should be too good for all of them but he may enter the second week with too many miles in his legs.
Roughies
The young Canadian ticks the boxes if we’re looking at the optimum US Open form line, as a Quarter Finalist at the Australian Open, Cincinnati and Montreal – the only player in the US Open draw to reach the final eight in all three tournaments.
Certainly has the game to make a deep run at a major which was on display in his Australian Open Quarter Final when he went two sets up against Daniil Medvedev.
Unfortunately for the Canadian, he features in the quarter from hell with Medvedev, Kyrgios, Bautista Agut, De Minaur, Thiem, Khachanov and an in-form Jack Draper who he’ll likely face in the second-round.
The Russian was on fire on hard court earlier in the year with two ATP victories to his name, but has fallen away the second half of the year.
Nonetheless, Andrey Rublev still has the sixth best hard court record this year at 22-7 going at 76% and enters this US Open with a Semi Final run at Washington.
A two-time Quarter Finalist at Flushing Meadows, the Russian is more than capable of winning his quarter paying $9 with the obvious obstacle being Nadal.
