Tennis Tips – Wimbledon Day 6 Tips

Alex De Minaur looks to advance to the fourth-round, but he could have his hands full against a big serving Dane.

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Best Bet

Lorenzo Sonego +3.5

Game Handicap

$1.72

I would have had this marked up close to even money, so very surprised to see Nakashima this short.

Sonego is 6-4 on grass across his career against players ranked 21-50 – Nakashima on the other hand just 5-6.

The Italian won their last meeting at the start of the year at Hong Kong in straight sets – I can quite easily see him beating the American again at a nice price.

Next Best

Cobolli vs Mensik Over 38.5

Total Games

$1.74

I really think the Italian can challenge Mensik in this the way he is playing, covering in both matches so far without dropping a set – that being said, the Czech is easily his toughest opponent so far.

Mensik is a big server, but doesn’t necessarily provide much else – as a result, both of his matches have gone over the total games line this Wimbledon.

They met in a challenger in Helsinki late 2023, with both sets going to 7 – Mensik the victor. I think we’ll see at least one tiebreaker in what should be a 4-set contest, which takes this over the total games.

De Minaur vs Holmgren Over 32.5

Total Games

$1.83

It’s a dangerously low total games line considering what we’re seeing from the unknown August Holmgren.

The Dane has played eight sets this Wimbledon and six of those have gone to tiebreakers – two tiebreakers in a straight sets De Minaur win will still cover the total games in this.

Both of the Australian’s matches so far have gone over the total games line, so I’m surprised to see this so low considering De Minaur is prone to dropping the odd set and also plays in his fair share of breakers.

Krejcikova vs Navarro Over 20.5

Total Games

$1.73

Navarro has surprised and been outstanding this Wimbledon so far, but the 2024 Champion will make her earn this third-round match.

The Czech loves a grass court battle – of her last 12 completed matches on grass, 11 of those have gone over the 20.5 total games line with eight of those going to three sets.

Navarro has smashed both Kvitova and Kudermetova, but this will be a lot tougher. The American is 1-4 on grass against top-20 opposition across her career, and the Czech plays an old-school grass court style that could trouble Navarro especially on the American’s serve.

Value Bet

Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Match

$2.30

The Italian could be taking a leaf out of countrywoman Jasmine Paolini’s book, coming from nowhere and making a deep Grand Slam run.

Cocciaretto was having such a bad 2025 but it appears it’s clicked on the grass – when you least expect it. The Italian made the Semi Final at Hertogenbosch, and then won two games in qualifying at Eastbourne prior to upsetting Pegula in the first-round.

Bencic just hasn’t played much tennis and it’s a concern the deeper you go into majors. She needed three sets to overcome the 113^th Frenchwoman in the second-round, and I think Cocciaretto will take a lot of confidence into this match the way she’s performing.

Multi

Shelton (M) / Cobolli vs Mensik Over 3.5 Sets (M) / Sonego vs Nakashima Over 3.5 Sets (M) / Krejcikova to win a set (W) = $4.24