Challenged in the first round, could Carlos Alcaraz be in for another long contest as he looks to win his third consecutive Wimbledon crown?
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Best Bet
Both players play in their fair share of long matches, generally going overs, and the same should happen in this.
All six of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s grass court matches have gone over 21.5 games this year, while eight of Osaka’s ten matches against top-50 opposition have gone over 21.5 total games.
Think a three-setter is on the cards here.
Next Best
Huge opportunity for the Spaniard to make a deep Wimbledon run getting Taylor Fritz at the perfect time.
Fritz has now played 12 sets since Sunday, featuring in the Final of Eastbourne before playing in two five-setters in the first two rounds of Wimbledon across three days. Davidovich Fokina has also played over three days so far but nowhere near to the extent of Fritz, only dropping the one set.
The record between these two is intriguing – the record is 3-3 including Fritz beating him in the Eastbourne Semi Final in three sets, but the Spaniard did beat Fritz on hard court earlier in the year. ADF is volatile, but he won’t get a better look than this.
Likely exhausted, but surely Frenchman Arthur Rinderknech has identified this as one of the best opportunities in his tennis career, which should be enough to get him up for this third-round match.
Realistically, Rinderknech is a big chance of advancing through to a Quarter Final after taking Zverev’s path of the draw.
He faces Kamil Majchrzak – the journeyman has been reasonable on clay across his career, but never great on grass with a 1-3 record against top-75 opposition, with that win coming in the first-round against an underdone Berrettini.
This could be a long one, but surely Rinderknech finds a way.
Alcaraz did the same thing last year at Wimbledon, where he doesn’t really play at a great level but finds a way to win through.
This third-round against Jan Lennard Struff looks like a conventional win, but the German has played some great tennis against the Spaniard.
Alcaraz has a 3-1 record, but on all four occasions Struff has won at least one set – Wimbledon 2022, the German took Alcaraz the distance, with their most recent meeting in Madrid last year where Alcaraz won 6-3 6-7 7-6.
Value Bet
An extremely short-price for Karen Khachanov. The Russian hasn’t been in great form this year with a 20-15 record, and really should have lost his second-round match against the 144th ranked Japanese.
Khachanov is just 8-8 against players ranked between 21-50 at majors, and from those 16 matches he’s covered the line of -4.5 just twice.
Borges has never been great on grass, but he’s a solid opposition ranked 37th in the world. The Portuguese has had two good wins this Wimbledon already, and is playing at a much better standard than Khachanov so far this tournament.
One in three underdogs have been winning in the men’s draw this Wimbledon – based on those numbers, I think Borges is the best value in the men’s draw to claim another seeded scalp.
Multi
Norrie (M) / Fonseca (M) / Svitolina (M) / Noskova (W) = $4.35
