The Warrnambool Carnival kicks off with three maiden hurdles before the feature race later in the day, the Brierly Steeplechase.
Race 1 – Unbooleivable Maiden Hurdle, 3200m
Looks the strongest of the maiden hurdles with four nice prospects in Alakahan, Dubai Moon, Extra Elusive and Right Now. Full disclosure, I have a small share in Alakahan but I do think it is the one to beat. He was a very smart flat performer and has been earmarked as a potential hurdler for a couple of years now.
Strategy: Back Alakahan.
Race 2 – Ecycle Solutions Maiden Hurdle, 3200m
There are three debutants that make up the winning hopes here. Apache Thunder, Bazini and Wilewink. I’m with Bazini. Would have preferred genuinely heavy ground but he’s looked really good at the trials and he has long looked like a horse who would make a top class hurdler and probably chaser.
Strategy: Back Bazini.
Race 3 – Choices Flooring Warrnambool Maiden Hurdle, 3200m
Interesting race here with two horses coming off recent seconds in maiden hurdles, those being Irish Butterfly and Leaderboard. Think the value here lies with the latter. The Kiwi galloper won the Wellington Cup so has a bit of class about him on the flat, and he also was a big drifter first up in that hurdle suggesting he should have plenty of fitness to come.
Strategy: Back Leaderboard.
Race 6 – Brierly Steeplechase, 3450m
A comment for every runner in this year’s Brierly Steeplechase is below.
Stern Idol – When he’s on he is nigh on unbeatable, but he’s also failed to finish in the Grand Annual and Grand National Steeple last year as an odds-on favourite. Seemed to handle the track fine in the Annual last year, just didn’t run out the trip. At $1.65 I’ll be looking on.
Britannicus – Looking for back to back wins in the race and critically for him, the forecast is quite dry. Only goes up half a kilo on last year’s win. Right in it.
Bell Ex One – Finished second in his only Steeplechase run, last year’s Grand National. Flat form of late has been very solid. Definite second pick but getting well found at less than $4.
Riding High – Veteran chaser who ran fourth in this race last year. That would appear to be about his ceiling this time.
Mighty Oasis – Doesn’t know how to run a bad race and drops nicely in weight into this. Lots to like, winning chance.
Tolemac – On his form last season he would be right in this but being pulled out of his last start at Pakenham isn’t a great sign. Strange, as his trial leading into it was excellent, beating Bell Ex One. Not prepared to dismiss altogether.
Instigator – Made a good fist of the steeplechase caper, filling the quinella in two races this year with Mighty Oasis. Legitimate hope in this race off that form, albeit I have Mighty marked shorter.
Castrofancaru – SCRATCHED.
Count Zero – Testament to the strength of this edition that last year’s GN Hurdle runner up is 25-1. His first hurdle run was a little disappointing though and he needs to improve a lot into this.
Sandman – Wouldn’t win if it started on Monday.
Strategy: See if we can get Stern Idol beaten, and take exotics around Bell Ex One, Britannicus, Instigator and Mighty Oasis.
Follow Betseeker for free expert horse racing tips for every day of the Australian horse racing calendar.
