The Suns will be hoping to hand the Cats a third straight loss on Thursday night in Darwin.
Best Bet
This is a golden opportunity for the Suns to take a scalp.
The jury remains out on just where Geelong fit in the 2024 pecking order. Their seven wins have come against teams currently ranked 14th, 12th, 15th, 11th 18th, 13th and 7th before losses in the last two weeks to teams ranked 4th and 6th.
This is a shadow of Chris Scott’s best side too, with arguably four of their top five players in Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins, Patrick Dangerfield and Mitch Duncan all missing.
The Suns have made some smart changes for their second Darwin match in a row, bringing in three experienced players in Sam Day, David Swallow and Brayden Fiorini for two kids in Jed Walter and Jake Rogers, as well as Nick Holman. Jarrod Witts has also been rested, which is fine given the Cats are playing fourth-gamer Toby Conway in the ruck.
The midfield battle should be a big advantage for Gold Coast. Last week we saw Geelong’s already thin midfield get destroyed by the third-best team for clearance differential in Port Adelaide. The Suns are ranked fourth in this metric in 2024 while the Cats sit 17th.
The Suns have turned their second home into a fortress in recent years, winning and covering the line in five straight games at TIO.
Back them to score their biggest win of the season in the top end.
Insights
🏠 Gold Coast Suns’ Home Advantage: At home, the Gold Coast Suns have shown strong performance, covering the spread in 12 out of their last 15 games.
🔙 Geelong Cats’ Challenges Post-Loss: After a loss, the Geelong Cats have found it difficult to cover the spread, achieving this only twice in their last 9 games
📉 Geelong Cats’ Scoring After Conceding High Points: When conceding more than 100 points in their previous game, the Geelong Cats have covered the spread only twice in their last 9 games
Same Game Multi
Port’s midfield went bananas against the Cats last week so back the Suns’ stars to rack them up.
Flanders has had 30+ in three of his last five and 29 last week. Miller also had 25 last week and has cleared 25 in four of his last five.
Ben Ainsworth has scored five goals in his last three games.
Value Bet
Humid, dewy conditions will bring smart forwards into this one. This is a great price for Ainsworth to bag a couple, which he has done in two of his last three games.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2024 AFL season.
