The first team is through to the Conference Finals. Today I predict the second team will advance.
Denver Nuggets @ Minnesota Timberwolves (10:30am)
Best Bet
Gordon has had some sort of resurrection. The 28-year-old was -23 and -33 in +/- ratings in Games 1 and 2 respectively. The Nuggets were beaten in both games. Fast forward to the must win Game 3 in Minnesota and A.G. flicked a switch.
Across Denver’s 3 wins, Gordon has averaged 19.3 Points at an incredible 69.7% FG, 6.3 Rebounds and 5.3 Assists. He has shot the 3 ball at a ridiculous 71.4% and has made all Free Throws he has attempted. Put simply, he has locked in and gone to another level.
Gordon’s PRA line is higher than his regular season numbers but only went up 1 PRA since last game, in which he finished with 33 PRA. With Michael Porter Jnr struggling, it has been Gordon who has stepped up to create the big three with Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.
Averaging 10 Points from in the paint over the last three Denver wins, Aaron has been aggressive in attack and has thrived when bringing the ball up. This has allowed Denver to have Murray playing off the ball and running sets that the Timberwolves would have seen far less and are struggling to negate.
If Gordon remains this hot he could potentially clear this line just with points, if he cools off we should see enough peripheral stats to clear.
Value Bet
Denver Nuggets as underdogs only happened 10 times over the course of this season. With Playoff experience, this seasons MVP and an early scare in this series, I know they will be extremely determined to close this out in 6.
If they are to do so, they need a better showing from Michael Porter Jnr. Averaging only 12 PPG over this series. A far cry from his 2024 Playoff average of 17.4. He went 2/10 last game but if you have ever watched MPJ you know he will never die wondering.
He has actually shot 40.8% across the series and that’s including a couple of howlers. If he sees an early one go down, he may just reignite the fire. We never see these kind of odds for MPJ so if you think he can bust a shooting slump the value for +15 points ($2.15) and +20 points ($4.90) cannot be ignored.
SGM – Denver/ Porter Jnr +10 Points/ Gordon +6 Rebounds/ Jokic +8 Assists = $5.75
