Both teams are missing their star playmaker but it is Penrith who are better equipped to get it done with the Warriors drowning in a sea of predictability and frustration.
Best Bet
Both the Panthers and Warriors endured wretched Round 10s with the star No.7s of each team going down injured with both set to miss at least six weeks.
A hamstring injury felled Nathan Cleary and the issue was compounded by backup Brad Schneider sustaining a leg injury in NSW Cup the same day, meaning Jack Cole will get the start in the halves.
With Dylan Edwards offering plenty of playmaking from fullback and a dominant pack, the Panthers look reasonably well-equipped to handle Cleary’s absence.
The same cannot be said for the Warriors. Shaun Johnson has proven their only creative presence and he is now out an extended period. Te Maire Martin has provided very little since taking over from the injured Luke Metcalf and now fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad moving to five-eighth with rookie Taine Tuiapiki coming into the custodian role.
Penrith are 12-6 ATS off scoring 16 or fewer but this is a play against the Warriors primarily.
Bottom four teams off a loss cover at just 42% while the Warriors are 9-16 ATS off conceding 30-plus. They cover at just 42% away from Mt Smart.
It is a big number but Penrith look the bet.
Insights
Penrith’s Consistent Covers Against NZ Warriors: Penrith has a strong track record of covering the spread against the NZ Warriors, achieving this in all of their last 4 encounters and extending the streak to 7 covers in the last 8 games.
Penrith’s Dominance at Suncorp Stadium: Penrith has been nearly unbeatable at Suncorp Stadium, winning 14 out of their last 20 games at this venue.
High Scoring Trends Against Top Teams: The NZ Warriors tend to be involved in high-scoring games against top 8 teams, with the total going over in 8 of their last 9 matchups.
Same Game Multi
Sunia Turuva is enjoying a tremendous season with nine tries in eight games. He has not gone back-to-back games without scoring.
Luke Garner has been in outstanding tryscoring form with three tries in his last two games.
Value Bet
Liam Martin absolutely loves squaring off against the Warriors. The bustling backrower has taken on the pride of New Zealand six times and crossed in four. He has scored in his last three meetings. He looks a great price to get over against the struggling Wahs.
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