The points are expected to flow when the Storm and the Eels meet on Sunday with Parramatta’s defensive struggles and Melbourne’s ability to score a perfect overs mix.
Best Bet
The over looks a great bet with projected good weather for the Eels-Storm clash on Sunday afternoon.
Even though these two have a history of low-scoring games with 10 of the last 14 going under with an average total of 38 across that run.
This is just a great over spot for both teams though, particularly with the Eels missing a number of superstars.
The over is 25-15 when the Storm play teams outside of the Top 8. It is also 23-13 when they are a double digit favourite. The Storm have stopped 30 three times this year.
The bigger angle though is with the Eels, where the numbers are astonishing.
The over is 19-10 when the Eels play intestate. They are 26-11 when they are off a loss. The over is 24-11 when the Eels are an underdog including an 11-3 over record when they are an outsider of at least eight points.
Pound the over and pound it hard.
Insights
🛣️ Parramatta’s High Scoring Away Games: Parramatta exhibits a strong trend towards high scoring in away games, achieving ‘over’ in a vast majority of these matches, including 26 overs in the last 30 away games.
🔙 Melbourne’s Strong Comeback After Losses: Melbourne has an impeccable record of bouncing back after losses, securing wins in each of their last 9 games following a defeat.
🆚 Melbourne’s Challenges Against Lower-Ranked Teams: Despite their strong overall performance, Melbourne has struggled to cover the spread against the bottom 4 and bottom 9 teams, achieving only 2 covers in each scenario across the last 9 games.
Same Game Multi
Sua Fa’alogo has three tries in three NRL games.
Will Warbrick has 21 tries in 34 games and gets a plus-matchup this week.
Xavier Coates has 38 tries in 45 games for the Storm and the Eels are a disaster on their edges.
Value Bet
Parramatta are awful defensively on their left edge and that bodes well for Eli Katoa. Katoa is a quality tryscorer who has crossed three times this year. He is an excellent line runner and he is not afraid to go himself from dummy half. He is a super play.
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