The Saints host the Dockers on Saturday night at Marvel in what promises to be an unwatchable affair.
Best Bet
A total of 148.5 for a Marvel game tells you how ugly this will be but that aside, Freo are a very good bet here as outsiders.
The Saints’ two wins from their last seven games came against last-placed North Melbourne and a seven-point win over 17th-placed Richmond.
The Dockers have hardly set the world on fire with their dour footy, but demolitions of the Bulldogs and Tigers in the last three weeks indicate they are a class above against the league’s poorer teams like St Kilda.
Ross Lyon has a real issue up forward, which will only be exasperated against Freo’s gun key defenders. Supposed spearhead Max King has kicked just four goals in his last four games leaving Tim Membrey leading the season goal-kicking on just 15.
The Dockers are more vulnerable against small forwards like Will Hayward who kicked four last week, but the Saints are missing their best Jack Higgins through suspension.
St Kilda have lost 11 straight games to teams above them on the ladder while the Dockers have covered the line in six of their last seven on the road.
Back Freo then find yourself a good movie to watch.
Insights
🚀 Fremantle Away Performance: Fremantle has secured wins in 5 of their last 7 away games and covered the spread in 6 of these matches.
🔻 St Kilda Post-Loss Performance: Following a loss, St Kilda games have rarely surpassed the points total, with over occurring only four times in their last 20 games.
🎲 St Kilda As Favourites: When favoured, St Kilda has not managed a 40+ point win in their last 9 games
Same Game Multi
The under is still a go here, with two of the last three games between these teams failing to hit 130 points including a game at Marvel.
Sean Darcy is likely to play which will allow Luke Jackson to play forward more. He kicked four goals in the three games Darcy played.
As below, Luke Ryan will get leather poisoning in this game. You could bump his tally to 30+ for some extra value too.
Value Bet
This is a match made in heaven.
Freo are super careful with their ball movement out of defence so their backmen rack up big disposal tallies. St Kilda allow massive numbers to opposition defenders due to their rigid defensive structures up the field.
Enter Luke Ryan, who had 37 against the Saints last time they met and 39 two weeks back against Richmond.
The 35+ is a great play and 40+ is definitely a chance for the first time in his career.
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