Plenty of value in the women’s draw this Wimbledon with some question marks surrounding the four top seeds.
Champion
I get the impression we could see an upset at Wimbledon – I’m not sold on Swiatek’s game on the grass, nor Coco Gauff’s, Rybakina has been inconsistent at majors and Sabalenka hasn’t historically been great at Wimbledon and has endured a lot in 2024.
Madison Keys has been one of the form players on tour this year with a 16-6 record – one of seven players inside the top-50 going above a 70% win rate.
There’s no doubt Keys is a frustrating follow – don’t get me started on last year’s US Open Semi Final, but she certainly has the game for grass in which she made the Quarter Final last year. Has been in great form on the clay, think she’ll be even better suited on grass.
Runner Up
Happy to put a line through Danielle Collins’ French Open and the fact she hasn’t had a grass court lead-up has put the American under the radar.
Collins has produced an incredible year going 36-11, with the damage done on the faster surface winning Miami in March and backing it up with a win at Charleston in April – a clay court, but on the quicker side.
A tough first-round against Tauson, but if she gets through that she’s got a nice run which includes getting past the injured defending champion in Vondrousova, while the American’s stroke play is a huge shot against either Swiatek or Ostapenko.
Semi Finalists
Rybakina is the strong favourite to emerge from Q2 but the Kazakh’s form at majors has been poor in 2024. Jabeur hasn’t been great this year, but she does play the Wimbledon surface well.
Unfortunately for the Tunisian she’s stumbled at the last hurdle twice, both times as favourite, so I can’t see Jabeur winning it the way she has been playing, but her craft on grass shouldn’t be underestimated.
Seems to always be injured, but all of a sudden returns from a long spell and tears through the field at a major like where she nearly shocked the world in last year’s French Open Final against Swiatek.
Karolina Muchova played a bit of tennis leading into the US Open post Roland Garros, where she made the Semi Final, and has just played at Eastbourne in 2024 off the back of wrist surgery.
The Czech plays her best tennis fresh and her gameplay is very much suited to grass. Has beaten Sabalenka previously, and if she gets past the Belarussian anything is possible at a healthy price.
Roughies
The Russian has a booming serve and can cause some havoc in the second quarter. Another thing in Samsonova’s favour is her record against Rybakina, leading that match-up 4-1.
Enters Wimbledon after winning s Hertogenbosch, but the Russian’s biggest downfall is the concentration and consistency over a two-week tournament which is why we find her at $151.
That being said, Samsonova’s serve alone makes her extremely dangerous and capable of a big run.
You never know what you’ll get from Jelena Ostapenko, but the Latvian is a danger in the first quarter.
Ostapenko is also the player that Iga Swiatek wants to avoid at any major and it looks like this will be a Round of 16 match-up. Ostapenko holds a 4-0 career record over Swiatek with her brute power and erratic groundstrokes making it a nightmare match-up for the Pole.
23-11 in 2024 so far including a 74% win rate on hard courts – if Swiatek and Vondrousova bow out of the first quarter, Ostapenko must be considered a strong chance.
