The men’s draw has gone to plan with the four in-form clay court players in the world facing off in the Semi Finals at Roland Garros.
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Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic
The level Jannik Sinner is playing at this French Open is insane, with the Italian yet to drop a set. In fact, from his 15 sets he’s played this tournament, seven of them have been won to either 0 or 1 – and because of this, the unders looks like the play.
Novak Djokovic won’t be an easy kill like the others though – the Serbian is also playing at an outstanding level, but it will be completely different to the passive approach we saw by Zverev in their Quarter Final which Djokovic capitalised on.
From the ten matches this pair have played combined this French Open, only one of those have gone over the total games so far and with this line set at 37.5 games and Sinner’s ability to win sets to love or one, I feel this line is set for a five-setter – and I can’t see that happening.
Sinner has won their last three meetings dating back to November 2023 – but he’s twice the player he was back then. In their most recent Grand Slam meeting, it was Sinner as an underdog that beat Djokovic in the 2024 Australian Open – this went to four sets but was under the 37.5 total games. With this being on a slow surface and not on the hard courts, it should fall under in a four-set contest.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has had a very friendly draw through to the Semi Final at Roland Garros, but his numbers are very similar to that of Musetti and a long way back from what we’re seeing from Sinner.
The Spaniard smashed Tommy Paul who looked injured and is also nowhere near the level of the top-end players especially on clay, but he did battle against Ben Shelton in their Round of 16 contest.
Musetti has had a sensational 2025 with a 19-3 record on clay leading into this Semi Final – but from the Italian’s three losses, two have been at the hands of Alcaraz. He won the first set in the Final of Monte Carlo before Alcaraz blew him off the court, and in the Semi Final of Rome the scoreboard flattered him slightly with a 6-3 7-6 loss.
I still think Musetti can take a set in this contest though, taking some learnings from their past two meetings – and if he does that, the total games will cover 33.5 with ease.
Multi
Alcaraz + Both Players Win A Set / Sinner -1.5 Set Handicap = $3.47
