The traditional King’s Birthday match sees ladder-leading Collingwood square off with Melbourne.
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Best Bet
With Melbourne’s wet long weekend set to continue, the under looks the strongest play here.
Seven of the last eight games between these teams have gone under, with an average total of just 139 points. That includes each of the last four King’s Birthday games.
As we’ve touched on in the last few weeks, the under is a brilliant bet at this time of year, particularly at the MCG. Since 2010, 67% of games played at the home of footy between rounds 9 and 14 have gone under. Nine of the last ten games this year have also gone under.
More rain is forecast on the MCG, which will also keep scoring down. Over 70% of wet weather games since 2010 have gone under, including 10 of 11 played between rounds 9 and 14.
Keep an eye on the forecast, but if the predicted rain hits, then the under is the only play here.
Same Game Multi
Steer clear of the goal-kickers in wet weather.
Melbourne allow the third most disposals of any team. Look for Steele Sidebottom to have 25 for the third time in his last four at the MCG.
Scott Pendlebury has had 20+ in 21 of 22 against Melbourne, while Clayton Oliver has had 20+ in ten straight against Collingwood.
Value Bet
If we get the upper end of the predicted 4-20mm of rain, then this could be a really low-scoring clash. Two of the last four between these teams have failed to hit 132 points.
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