AFL Tips – Carlton v Essendon – Round 13 2025

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Best Bet

Under 158.5 Points

Total Points

$1.90

The under looks a sensational bet in this meeting of two highly unreliable teams, especially with significant rainfall forecast.

Under in Carlton games has been a great angle all year, despite their game going over last week. Each of their last nine night matches and each of their last seven matches at the MCG have gone under. Their games average 153 points this season – the third lowest average total of any team.

The team with the lowest average total this year is Essendon, whose games average just 147 points. Eight of their last nine games have gone under the total including each of their last six night games.

Carlton’s main strike weapon, their tall forwards, will be severely impacted by the forecast rainfall. Totals in wet weather games are never set low enough, with 70% of games played in rain going under since 2010.

Expect a slog on Sunday night.

Same Game Multi

Under 158.5 Points, G.Hewitt & P.Cripps 25+ Disposals, D.Parish 20+ Disposals

TBC

Hard to back any goal-kickers here so we’ll look to the inside mids. We’ll look past Merrett, however, as Cincotta could tag on return.

Ball pig Darcy Parish returns for his first game of the year off 25 and 21 touches in the VFL.

George Hewitt has had 25+ in 13 of his last 14 games, while Cripps has had 25+ in eight of nine at the MCG.

Value Bet

Under 128.5 Points

Alternate Total

$5.00

This could get really, really ugly, especially if the rain hits. The average total in wet weather night games at the MCG since 2021 is just 130 points.

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