Can the Knicks close the series when they head to Indiana for Game 6 in a series that’s been dominated by home court?
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers (10:30am)
Best Bet
Has played really well at home in both the Milwaukee and New York series so far and is vitally important to this Indiana team for defensive purposes.
Aaron Nesmith is the best match-up the Pacers have for Jalen Brunson – when Brunson faced the shorter Nembhard he literally did whatever he wanted in Game 5. Nesmith’s length has made things a lot tougher for the New York Guard, and if he can stay out of foul trouble we should see big minutes in Game 6.
Nesmith averages a PR of 14.9 across 11 playoff games so far, but these numbers are heavily skewed when playing in Indiana, averaging 11.8 points and 6.4 rebounds at home. From the five games on home court, Nesmith has covered the 15.5 PR in all five games, including doing so in their Game 4 demolition job in just 24 minutes of play.
Played as much as 38 minutes in a game this series, so with their season on the line I expect Carlisle to provide Nesmith a similar minutes output in this.
Value Bet
The beauty with this bet is, you’ll know very quickly whether you’re a chance or not. Reason being, Donte DiVincenzo has either been fire or non-existent the entire playoffs.
From 11 games, DiVincenzo averages 15.9 points which is why we get this line at 16.5 for Game 6 – ironically though, he’s been nowhere near this number all playoffs. DiVincenzo has one score between 10-20 from 11 playoff games being 19 points in Game 2 of the 76ers series.
Outside of that, Donte has six games of 9 points or less, and four games of 23 points or more including a 35-point effort at Indiana in Game 3. When he’s on, he’s gone big which makes both the 20+ and 25+ ($5.40) point lines very appealing in Game 6 – but also if you want to back in cold Donte, the under 13.5 points paying $3.60 could be your go!
SGM – Nesmith 10+ Points / DiVincenzo 15+ Points / Turner 2+ 3PM = $3.30
