The Northern Territory has just two seats – Solomon based in Darwin and Lingiari covering the remainder of the state – and both are currently held by the ALP. The ALP is strongly favoured to retain both seats.
Lingiari sees long-time member Warren Snowdon retire after 21 years in the seat and the member of its predecessor in 12 of the 14 years prior. A popular local MP, Labor will lose plenty of his personal vote. The Coalition are running former Alice Springs mayor Damien Ryan and the ALP have brought back former NT Deputy Chief Minister Marion Scrymgour. The ALP should hold on but will need to maximise turnout in remote communities with Ryan likely to dominate in Alice Springs.
Solomon is on a margin of just 3.1% but the momentum is not with the Coalition and though they had four wins in five elections before Luke Gosling was elected in 2016, there seems little appetite for change, particularly with the Liberals bringing out a two-time loser as their candidate.
The ALP should retain both seats but no value betting either seat though at $1.18 Lingiari is getting close to a play.
NT Election Forecast
ALP – 2
Coalition – 0
Crossbench – 0
NT Election Tips