AFL Grand Final 2024 Tips - First Goal Scorer Predictions

The first goal scorer market is always a favourite for AFL Grand Final betting and we’ve got a few picks who look great value for a hot start on Saturday.

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Grand Final First Goal Betting Analysis

There is a brilliant angle in this market with midfielders surprisingly scoring an overwhelming share of first goals in recent Grand Finals.

Since 2010, they have kicked the first goal in 10 of 14 deciders, including in last year’s game when Nick Daicos booted the opening snag.

The Pies star isn’t the only gun mid to open the scoring, with Christian Petracca, Luke Parker, Luke Shuey, Rory Sloane and Josh Kennedy (of Sydney) amongst the first goal scorers in recent years.

First Goal Scorers Since 2010

Forward	3
Midfield	10
Ruck	1
Defender	0
Bench	0

First Goal Scorer Tips

Our profile for a first goal scorer is a star midfielder. From a team perspective, Sydney are notoriously slow starters in 2024 while Brisbane have scored first in six of their last seven matches so lean to the Lions here.

Brisbane Lions

Cam Rayner

First Goal Scorer

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$16

Hugh McCluggage

First Goal Scorer

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$31

Great value here for two highly-skilled players. We’re stretching the midfield definition for Rayner, who has kicked three first goals this season and 2.2 last week, while McCluggage also scored a goal last week and two in last year’s Grand Final.

Sydney

Isaac Heeney

First Goal Scorer

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$15

Chad Warner

First Goal Scorer

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$15

No surprises here with Sydney’s two elite goal-kicking midfielders. Heeney is the top play from the Bloods with eight goals in his last three games while Warner also appeals after two last week.

Previous AFL Grand Final First Goal Kickers

Year	Player	Club	Position
2023	Nick Daicos	Collingwood	Midfield
2022	Tom Hawkins	Geelong	Forward
2021	Christian Petracca	Melbourne	Midfield
2020	Dion Prestia	Richmond	Midfield
2019	Jeremy Cameron	GWS	Forward
2018	Travis Varcoe	Collingwood	Midfield
2017	Rory Sloane	Adelaide	Midfield
2016	Luke Parker	Sydney	Midfield
2015	Luke Shuey	West Coast	Midfield
2014	Josh Kennedy	Sydney	Midfield
2013	Jack Gunston	Hawthorn	Forward
2012	Xavier Ellis	Hawthorn	Midfield
2011	Travis Varcoe	Geelong	Midfield
2010	Darren Jolly	Collingwood	Ruck
2010	Tyson Goldsack	Collingwood	Defender
2009	Max Rooke	Geelong	Forward
2008	Tom Lonergan	Geelong	Forward
2007	Cameron Mooney	Geelong	Forward
2006	Ashley Hansen	West Coast	Forward
2005	Mark Nicoski	West Coast	Bench
2004	Josh Carr	Adelaide	Midfield
2003	Alastair Lynch	Brisbane	Forward
2002	Anthony Rocca	Collingwood	Forward
2001	Alastair Lynch	Brisbane	Forward
2000	James Hird	Essendon	Midfield
1999	Brett Ratten	Carlton	Midfield
1998	John Blakey	North Melbourne	Midfield
1997	Jason Heatley	St Kilda	Forward
1996	Tony Lockett	Sydney	Forward
1995	Craig Bradley	Carlton	Midfield
1994	Tony Evans	West Coast	Midfield
1993	Paul Salmon	Essendon	Forward
1992	Trevor Poole	Geelong	Midfield
1991	Peter Sumich	West Coast	Forward
1990	Paul Salmon	Essendon	Forward
1989	Gary Ablett Snr	Geelong	Forward
1988	Peter Schwab	Hawthorn	Midfield
1987	Wayne Johnston	Carlton	Forward
1986	Jason Dunstall	Hawthorn	Forward
1985	Dermott Brereton	Hawthorn	Forward
1984	Leigh Matthews	Hawthorn	Forward
1983	Richard Loveridge	Hawthorn	Forward
1982	Wayne Johnston	Carlton	Forward
1981	Mark Williams	Collingwood	Midfield
1980	Dale Weightman	Richmond	Midfield