South Australia has only two seats in play, the Liberal held Boothby and Sturt, but both can be confidently bet.
Boothby has long been held by the Liberals, but with the retirement of incumbent Nicolle Flint, it looks like Labor could easily pick up this seat that is only on a 1.4% margin. It even swung towards Labor at the last poll, defying the national trend. We project that Boothby will finally fall to the ALP and the $1.75 available looks a fair price. (UPDATE: Labor has been backed into $1.22 in Boothby and lo longer look value at these odds)
Sturt is on a relatively healthy 6.9% margin, but with the recent rout of the Liberal Party in the South Australian election, anything looks possible here. Newland, of the state seats located within Sturt, fell to Labor for the first time, while there were huge swings against the Liberals right through the electorate. Happy to play Labor at $3.
Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Kingston, Makin, and Spence will be easily retained by the Labor party, while the Liberals will hold Barker and Grey. Centre Alliance member Rebekah Sharkie should hold Mayo.
SA Election Forecast
ALP – 7
Coalition – 2
Centre Alliance – 1
SA Election Tips
2 units Labor at 3.00 Sturt