Election Tips – Federal Election Prediction for Tasmania

Bridget Archer

With five federal seats the little island on the Southern edge of the continent wields disproportionate influence on federal elections. 

For more expert election tips, check out our state-by-state election previews for New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia,the Northern Territory and the ACT.

The two seats in play in this election are Bass and Braddon. Both are situated in northern Tasmania, Bass based on Launceston in the north east, with Braddon incorporating Burnie and Devonport. 

Bass and Braddon move in lock step – at every election since 1996, both have been won by either Labor or the Coalition. They were picked up by the Liberals on swings of 5.8% and 4.8% in the last poll. With the national trend pointing towards Labor, expect them to go to the opposition. $1.85 and $1.90 respectively are decent prices.

Independent Andrew Wilkie is in no danger in Clark, while the Labor party will hold Lyons and Franklin.

Tasmanian Election Forecast

ALP – 4
Independent – 1

Tasmanian Election Tips

5 units Labor @ 1.90 Bass
5 units Labor @ 1.90 Braddon

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.