Election Tips – Federal Election Prediction for New South Wales

Anthony Albanese

Traditionally a Labor state, New South Wales has been much more evenly poised in recent elections with the most populous state in Australia also the most important when it comes to determining government.

For more expert election tips, check out our state-by-state election previews for Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the ACT.

Heading into the May 21 poll, New South Wales has 24 ALP members, 21 Coalition MPs and two crossbenchers made up of former Liberal Craig Kelly and Warringah Independent Zali Steggall. 

There is no doubt that the challenge of Independents is a key storyline in the 2022 election, particularly in NSW. 

Steggall will retain the former Coalition stronghold while Hughes is likely to be lost by Craig Kelly but could potentially be won by independent Georgia Steele ahead of the heavily favoured Liberal candidate Jenny Ware. The money has been non-stop for Steele in a seat that is as confusing as any. 

The ‘Teal Independent’ movement has certainly had a major impact on this election and Sydney has been the heart of it. Former Liberal stronghold Wentworth is a ding dong battle with sitting MP Dave Sharma a massive chance of being upset by Allegra Spender. North Sydney has also seen a huge push with sitting MP Trent Zimmerman supposedly in strife. He does look value to hold. 

Coalition seats that look to be in play for Labor to varying levels are Bennelong, Banks, Robertson, Lindsay and Reid

Bennelong has seen John Alexander retire but the Coalition look to be in good stead to hold. Banks has a margin of 6.3% and should be retained. Lindsay is also looking reasonably sturdy for the Coalition. Labor are favoured in Reid and Robertson though the Coalition seem to be being underrated by the market.   

The ALP are near-morals in 17 seats that encompass Sydney holds Kingsford-Smith, Barton, Blaxland, Chifley, Fowler, Grayndler, Macarthur, McMahon, Sydney, Watson, Werriwa and Whitlam along with rural seats Cunningham, Newcastle, Shortland, Paterson and Richmond. The only potential concern is the independent challenge to Labor’s dominance in Fowler where there is unhappiness that former NSW premier Kristina Kenneally has been parachuted into the seat. 

Labor is also in the box seat to hold their seven marginal seats. Hunter, Eden-Monaro, Greenway and Dobell are all held by margins of under 3% but look huge chances of being retained with their longest price among that quadrant $1.30 in Hunter with the retirement of Joel Fitzgibbon supposedly making the seat more vulnerable.

The ALP is also favoured in current holds of Macquarie, Gilmore and Parramatta. Macquarie is held by just 0.2% and has changed eight times since 1975 and will see a re-run of the 2019 matchup. Labor remain value though at the $1.65. There was talk that Parramatta could return to the Liberal fold but that is looking less likely after a strong candidate performance from Andrew Charlton. Gilmore is held on 2.6% but the Coalition have wheeled out popular local state MP Andrew Constance. Holding that south coast seat would be a victory would be against the tide. 

The Coalition can tick up the 11 seats of Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Farrer, Lyne, Mitchell, New England, Parkes, Riverina, Calare and Hume before a vote has been cast. Bennelong, Cowper and MacKellar should also be retained by the Coalition with some value in betting on all three. 

NSW Election Forecast

ALP – 24
Coalition – 21
Crossbench – 2

NSW Election Tips

4 units Coalition at $1.40 in Page
2 units Coalition at $1.80 in Bennelong
5 units ALP at $1.65 in Gilmore
7 units ALP at $1.25 in Fowler