Western Australia has 15 seats up for grabs following the abolition of Coalition-held Stirling and the state has in recent decades become the jewel in the Coalition crown. Labor sense blood in the water out west, however, following the ALP’s recent landslide state election victory.
Heading into the 2022 Federal Election, the Coalition have 10 seats to defend while the ALP have five. The saying goes though that when the West swings, it swings hard. That brings a number of seats that probably should not be in play right into Labor’s sights.
The ALP, naturally,will have zero concerns about retaining Fremantle, Brand, Burt or Perth, all currently held on margins of 4.9% or larger. Anne Aly also holds Cowan on just 0.9% but with the swing all–but-certainly heading in Labor’s direction, this traditionally marginal seat is unlikely to be in play.
The six Coalition seats that are in no danger of going are Canning, Durack, Forrest, Moore, O’Connor and Tangney. Five are not bettable propositions but Tangney presents as excellent value at the current TopSport quote of $1.37 with strong local MP Ben Morton able to sandbag the 9.5% margin.
Curtin is another Coalition seat that should be retained with a margin of 13.9% but the money has continued to pour in for Independent candidate Kate Chaney, who comes from a long-line of Liberal royalty – her grandfather and uncle served as ministers in the Menzies and Fraser governments. The Coalition looks a backable price at face value but the momentum of the ‘Voices For’ candidate bears respect.
The three seats that are of most interest are Swan, Pearce and Hasluck.
On polling, Swan is as good as gone for the Coalition, defending only a 3.2% margin and with the retirement of sitting MP Steve Irons. High-profile candidate Kristy McSweeney gives them a fighting chance but this is Labor’s to lose.
Pearce is a fascinating seat with Christian Porter retiring. The margin of 5.2% after the recent redistribution looks in severe danger on both polling and betting with Labor favoured to take the seat. There is some betting value on the Coalition here.
Hasluck is the closest WA seat when it comes to betting. History-maker Ken Wyatt has held the seat for the Coalition since 2010 and is marginal favourite to retain. The 5.9% margin is a concern but a weak ALP candidate should see Wyatt returned.
WA Election Forecast
ALP – 7
Coalition – 8
Crossbench – 0
WA Election Tips
20 units ALP at $1.12 in Cowan
2 units Coalition at $1.65 in Hasluck
1 unit Coalition at $3.30 in Pearce
15 units Coalition at $1.31 Tangney