Queensland has 30 seats up for grabs on May 21 and while the state has played arguably the most critical role of any state in determining the last three elections, its importance looks somewhat diminished in 2022 unless the Coalition are handed an election wipeout.
The Coalition performed so well in 2019 that they hold a double digit margin in 13 seats. None of Maranoa, Groom, Moncrief, Wright, Fadden, Hinkler, Fairfax, Wide Bay, Fisher, McPherson, Bowman and former marginal coal-based mining seats Capricornia and Dawson look to be in any danger of being claimed by the ALP. Bowman at 10.4% with a retiring member is arguably the best hope while Hinkler is seeing a crossbench challenge with former Bundaberg mayor Jack Dempsey running as an independent.
The Coalition hold another five seats on a margin of 7.4% and while they should be retained there is a little more doubt if the Labor tide really rolls in. Petrie, Bonner and Forde should all be retained by the Coalition with no indication they are under imminent threat. The rural seats of Flynn and Herbert are strongly linked by coal and have margins of 8.7% and 8.4%. They should be retained by the Coalition but Labor’s pro-coal positioning and the retirement of Flynn MP Ken O’Dowd brings both into aspirational play for Labor.
The four Brisbane seats with a Coalition margin of under 6% as well as the North Queensland seat of Leichhardt shape as the key battlegrounds in Queensland.
Dickson looks the safest bet for the Coalition with the high-profile Peter Dutton expected to retain despite a margin of just 4.6%. Ryan is held by the Coalition at a margin of 6.0% but has become an affluent electorate with green tendencies that is now a three-way contest. Ryan should be retained.
The two seats that do look most likely to fall are Brisbane and Longman. The market has Labor favoured just to win Longman but Brisbane certainly seems the more likely to fall.
Leichhardt has been served almost exclusively by long-time popular local MP Warren Entsch since 1996 and though the margin is just 4.2% it is a longshot that Labor will be able to take the electorate.
Labor has just six seats to defend in Queensland and will have few problems doing so. Rankin and Oxley are both held on margins above 6% while the four marginals under 3% in Blair, Moreton, Lilley and Griffith are not in play to be picked up by the Coalition this time after they weren’t claimed in the high watermark win of 2019.
Iconic North Queensland independent Bob Katter will again win Kennedy.
Queensland has plenty of seats but few in play. The strong Coalition record up there should be enough to see the state map remain relatively unchanged.
Queensland Election Forecast
ALP – 7
Coalition – 22
Katter’s Australian Party – 1
Queensland Election Tips
2 units ALP at $2.30 in Brisbane
4 units Coalition at $1.21 in Hinkler
10 units Coalition at $1.30 in Leichhardt
10 units ALP at $1.14 in Lilley
7 units Coalition at $1.44 in Ryan