NSW voters head to the polls this Saturday with the Coalition Government seeking a fourth straight term as Labor looks to wrest power back for the first time since 2011.
The Coalition enter the election with 45 of the 93 seats after three resignations. Labor has 36 seats. With a redistribution in place, the Coalition now hold a notional 46 seats with the ALP holding 38 and nine crossbenchers expected to retain.
It is an election the ALP have long been expected to win but the task is not an easy one with the ALP needing a uniform swing of 5% to win more seats and likely 6.5% to win a majority government.
While betting markets have Labor as very strong favourites, polls suggest this race will be far closer than anticipated.
The latest Freshwater Strategy poll has Labor with a 53-47 advantage but it is a poll that traditionally skews Labor. The low energy campaigns from both sides have probably worked in favour of the Coalition and Dominic Perrottet does not hold a huge deficit in preferred leader.
One thing to note though is the already large crossbench contingent, the trend away from major party support and the voting system that allows for the exhaustion of votes.
There is no doubt that there will be a swing towards Labor. The Coalition are confident they have sandbagged enough of Western Sydney and if they have, a fourth straight term will be theirs.
Best Bets
Winner – Coalition ($5)
Hung Parliament ($1.40)
This election is going to be far closer than the polls are suggesting. A hung parliament seems a near-certainty with the $1.40 an outstanding bet. If the Coalition can save seats like East Hills and Penrith, then they are huge value.
Goulburn – Coalition ($1.70)
The last time the ALP won this seat was in 1962 so even though this sits well within range of the polls for Labor, the Coalition will be very confident of retaining this seat and rightly so. The Labor candidate seems weak.
Riverstone – Coalition ($2.40)
A key seat held on a margin of 6.5%, the Coalition know holding this seat will probably prevent Labor from the very least claiming a majority. The Liberal candidate is far more palatable than the Labor one. Value on the Coalition here.
Penrith – Coalition ($3)
The Coalition hold this marginal seat by just 0.6% but while there will be a swing to Labor, this seat looks a very good chance of being retained by arguably the most well-known member of the Government, Stuart Ayres.
Monaro – Labor ($4)
Fascinating seat that the Nationals hold a 5.2% advantage in. The sitting MP though won a by-election after the popular MP John Barilaro’s retirement. Labor are running former local member Steve Whan, who is well known and well-liked. He is big odds.
Murray – Independent ($1.55)
Barwon – Independent ($1.28)
Once again the safety of rural independents is being underestimated. Rural independents who forge their own paths can write their own tickets as long as they don’t sell out their electorates (see Windsor, Tony and Oakeshott, Rob). These two left the SFF and have stood on their own two feet and won’t be losing.
