Victoria is Labor’s strongest state as the opposition holds 21 of the 38 electorates leading into this year’s poll.
Much of the media focus and betting volume has been on the inner city seats of Kooyong and Goldstein where the incumbents, treasurer Josh Frydenberg and minister Tim Wilson, are being challenged by high profile so-called “teal” independents.
We project that both Frydenberg and Wilson will be returned. The Liberal vote is already at a low watermark in Victoria and neither of the two incumbents has the polarising effect of Tony Abbott who was famously defeated in his electorate of Warringah in the 2019 poll. Happy to play both at $1.50 or better. Wilson is big value at $2.30.
Finding seats that the Labor party can pick up off the Liberals is tricky. The obvious one is Chisholm where they are favoured to dislodge incumbent Gladys Liu, but the division has now gone Liberal at the last two elections, with two different candidates, and Labor don’t appear overly optimistic about winning the seat. Happy to play Liu at $2.50 or better.
Labor might be worth a small play in Higgins at big odds. The local Liberal MP, Katie Allen, is described as a lazy campaigner and a redistribution has shaved a little off her margin. (UPDATE: Labor has been heavily backed into $2.60, they no longer look value at this price).
The outer eastern suburbs seats of Aston, Casey, Deakin and La Trobe are likely out of reach for Labor as well. The pick of those from a betting point of view is Deakin where $1.60 for the incumbent Michael Sukkar is excellent value.
The Liberals are hoping to pick up McEwen. Historically they have done well in the seat but they have chosen poor candidates in the last couple of elections. A redistribution notionally favours the Labor Party but the Coalition are worth a small bet at a big price.
There are some close seats in rural VIctoria but we are not expecting Labor to lose Corangamite or the Liberals to be in danger in Flinders. Independent incumbent Helen Haines is expected to hold Indi, while in neighbouring Nicholls the Coalition should be able to fight off the independent challenge, as a three cornered contest usually helps their vote.
Labor face no danger at all in Ballarat, Bendigo, Bruce, Calwell, Cooper, Corio, Dunkley, Fraser, Gellibrand, Gorton, Hawke, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Lalor, Macnamara, Maribyrnong, Scullin or Wills.
The Coalition will hold Gippsland, Mallee, Menzies, Monash, and Wannon with no issues, while the Greens will retain Melbourne.
Victorian Election Forecast
ALP – 22
Coalition – 15
Independent – 1
Greens – 1
Victorian Election Tips
15 units Coalition at $1.45 in Deakin
15 units Coalition at $1.40 in La Trobe
2 units Coalition at $2.75 in Goldstein
5 units Coalition at $1.70 in Kooyong
3 units Coalition at $3.10 in Chisholm
1 unit Coalition at $5.00 in McEwen