The Bulldogs have been tough defensively this year and can hold the Storm in check when the teams meet in Melbourne on Sunday.
Best Bet
Under 40.5 ($1.90)
There are angles everywhere pointing to the under in this including a recent history between these teams that has seen the under hit at a clip of 59%.
Melbourne are historically one of the top defensive teams in the premiership and really assert that against weaker teams. Canterbury have conceded the second fewest points through three rounds.
The under is 10-5 when Melbourne are off a loss, including 5-1 when they play at AAMI, while it is 16-10 when the Storm are favoured by more than a converted try.
The under is also 15-6 when the Bulldogs are an underdog of 14-plus points and 17-5 when they are off conceding 16 or fewer.
In the opening four rounds of the season, the under is 24-9 when a double digit line exists.
Same Game Multi
Brandon Smith Try/Ryan Papenhuyzen Try ($4.50)
Ryan Papenhuyzen has an astonishing tryscoring record as a starter, scoring 33 tries in 43 starts. He scored in his only start against Canterbury.
Brandon Smith has scored 12 tries in his last 26 games including scoring the opener last week.
Value Bet
Melbourne 1-12/Under 40.5 ($4.50)
Melbourne have not covered any of their first three games while the Bulldogs have covered twice. Canterbury are 9-4 against the number getting more than 10 while the Storm have covered just 1 of 5 getting 12.5 or more. The Storm should win but this will be closer than forecast. The under is a cracking play as noted in the Best Bet.
