AFL Tips – Collingwood v Carlton – Round 4 2025

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Best Bet

Under 168.5 Points

Line

$1.90

The under looks like a terrific bet to kick off the weekend’s AFL action.

After ranking 14th for points conceded last year, Michael Voss has clearly prioritised defence in the off-season, with his side now up to 11th in that category and conceding nearly a goal less per game through three rounds.

However, this improvement has come at the expense of their offence, which has yet to score more than 75 points in a game. Their two key goal kickers in Curnow and McKay are yet to play together, the former having an interrupted pre-season and the latter batting personal issues.

As a result, nine straight Carlton games have gone under the total points line, with their highest total in 2025 coming last week at just 153.

Two of Collingwood’s three games have also gone under the total, and five of the last six meetings between these teams have followed the same trend.

With showers forecast for Thursday night, expect a tight, low-scoring contest to kick off Round 4.

Same Game Multi

Collingwood 1-39 Points, Under 168.5 Points, J.Daicos 25+ Disposals

TBC

It’s hard to see Carlton kicking a winning score here, especially if there is any significant rain as Collingwood’s smalls are far superior. The Blues have failed to cover the line in four straight games and have lost their last five games by 1-39 points.

Josh Daicos is always a great bet at the MCG. He’s had 25+ in four straight at the home of footy.

Value Bet

Carlton/Collingwood

HT/FT Double

TBC

The Blues have been in front in all three of their games at half time this year before going on to lose. We know the Pies love a comeback, so this looks a great play.

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