AFL Tips - Geelong v Melbourne

The Dees’ miserable start to 2025 looks set to to continue when they head down the highway to meet Geelong on Friday night.

Best Bet

Over 173.5 Points

Line

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$1.90

Melbourne are a defensive mess at present, and it should result in a high-scoring clash in Geelong.

The Dees have conceded 120 and 125 points in their last two games, as their long-standing defensive pillars, Steven May and Jake Lever, have both had interrupted starts to the year, while their midfield is getting blitzed out of the stoppages. They are averaging just 67 points per game themselves.

To hit this total, we’ll need a monster score from the Cats, and history suggests that’s a strong possibility. Since the start of 2024, the Cats have averaged 99 points at Kardinia Park, with four totals of more than 110 points – the latest coming in Round 1 against a typically stingy Fremantle.

Perhaps contrary to prevailing wisdom, the Cattery is a great ground to back the overs, with the last three games clearing the total, as well as five of the last six meetings between these teams at this venue.

Back the Cats to pile on the goals and take us over this number.

Same Game Multi

Geelong H2H, Over 173.5 Points, O.Henry 2+ Goals, O.Dempsey Anytime Goal

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TBC

If we’re taking the overs then it makes sense to back the Cats too. The Dees won’t get anywhere near them in a shootout, so the 1.20 is a nice SGM boost.

Ollie Henry kicked three in his most recent game against the Dees while Ollie Dempsey has kicked a snag in four straight.

Value Bet

Geelong

121+ Points

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TBC

As mentioned, the Cats have put up some monster tallies at home, and the Dees have been conceding some monster scores too. Hitting 120 looks very achievable for the home side.

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.