With the Suns returning to Phoenix down 2-0, expect them to put in a better showing with their season on the line.
Best Bet
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers (7:30am)
It’s a big rebound line for Lopez who hasn’t got near the glass in the first two playoff games at home against the Pacers. Lopez has only managed 5 rebounds total across the two games so far and is the second worst player in the series so far in terms of rebounds per 36 minutes, currently going at 2.96.
I expect Doc Rivers to make some adjustments and it could be at the expense of Lopez if he doesn’t make shots early. The Bucks look awfully slow defensively with both him and Portis trying to cover Turner and Siakam stretching the floor, while Portis probably provides a more consistent offensive performance in a team lacking offensive depth without Giannis and pounding minutes into PatBev.
We could see a dip in the Lopez minutes with Crowder a potential defensive piece for the Siakam job – but even if he plays his 30 minutes, he’s being dragged away from the rim and this line looks too high.
SGM – Nembhard 10+ Points / Lopez Under 5.5 Rebounds / Haliburton 10+ Assists = $4.00
Next Best
LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks (10:00am)
Appears to be playing injured while being an awful match-up against the Clippers. Gafford played just 14 minutes in Game 1 resulting in just 3 points, and then in his 9 minutes in Game 2 he managed just 1 rebound.
JKidd also went to Lively as the start ahead of Gafford in the second half with the rookie playing well for his 7 points and 9 rebounds, while he’s set on PJ Washington playing around 36 minutes in the Power Forward spot. Then we also have to squeeze Kleber in who can play either the 4 or 5 and currently has the best +/- for the Mavericks across this series.
It looks like Gafford will be the one being squeezed out of the rotation and I can quite easily see him playing even less than 9 minutes in Game 3.
SGM – Kyrie 25+ Points / Washington 10+ Points / Gafford Under 4.5 Rebounds = $4.33
Value Bet
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Phoenix Suns (12:30pm)
Don’t really know what you ever get with Jusuf Nurkic, but his form playing on his home court in Phoenix is significantly better than what he dishes out on the road.
Nurkic’s points per game in Phoenix during the regular season was up 21% while his rebound numbers were also up by 12%.
He’s also a barometer for this Suns outfit – Nurkic’s points production is up 8% in wins this season against losses, and rebounding is also up 13% when they’re victorious. Despite Phoenix being awful in both games to open this series with Minnesota, it’s still too early to judge until each team plays at home so I think we could see Nurkic’s output increase coming off a double-double in Game 2.
SGM – Nurkic 10+ Points / McDaniels 10+ Points / Suns Win = $4.20
Saturday NBA Multi
Dallas
Phoenix
Indiana
$3.32
