Two Eastern Conference elimination games to dissect, with an Indiana Pacers superstar now under an injury cloud.
Best Bet
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers (11:00am)
The Knicks had the 76ers dead to rights until one of the all-time choke jobs. Up 6 with 29 seconds remaining they managed to foul a 4-point play, miss a free throw and then let Tyrese Maxey reach 41 points and tie the game, sending it to OT. Sheesh what a horrible half minute.
Kelly Oubre has averaged 16.2 PR across the series but the 2 games in Philly were both 22 PR performances. He seems much more comfortable at home as opposed to New York’s Madison Square Garden. He has averaged 60.8% from the field in Philly, making 5 of his 6 triples here.
Oubre’s points line at 12.5 is also attainable but with a 5.1 rebound average against New York in 2024, it might be a healthy rebounding night that tips this bet over the line.
SGM – Oubre +12.5 Points/Anunoby +6 Rebounds/ Brunson +30 Points = $4.50
Next Best
Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers (8:30am)
The Bucks, facing elimination in Game 5 manage to not only win but win convincingly beating the Pacers by 23. Middleton and Portis had 29 each but the Milwaukee defence was more impressive, keeping Indiana’s roster to 16 points or under. The Indiana Pacers now must deal with a probable tag on superstar Tyrese Haliburton who undoubtedly will play, but to what level we will wait and see.
Drew has been consistent in his role for the Pacers and is shooting a sharp percentage at 58.3% for the series. With a PRA average of 21.6 for the series it gets an incredible boost when you remove Game 1 (Nembhard’s first ever playoff game) making his PRA average 24.75. Whether it was Playoff nerves or just an off night, the consistent numbers here all clear this line.
In the 4 most recent games of this series, Nembhard has finished with a PRA of 20, 27, 25 and 27. If he continues to shoot well, we should see enough minutes here to cover.
SGM – Nembhard +10 Points/ Nembhard +3.5 Rebounds/ Nembhard +4.5 Assists = $$5.00
Value Bet
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers (11:00am)
Jalen Brunson has been scoring at a rapid rate with 39, 47 and 40 over his last 3 games. His minutes have ramped up and over the last 3 games, he barely comes out for a breather. He has averaged 29 shot attempts this series and gets just under 10 free throws attempts on top of that.
Brunson has been playing with a chip on his shoulder ever since being named an All-Star Reserve, which prompted Becky Hammon to say “He’s too small to be an A1”. Jalen took these comments personally and has been proving people wrong ever since.
This is purely a usage play as we will see the ball in Jalen Brunson’s hands for the entire game. Have a look at Brunson +30 and +35 if that better suits your risk factor.
Thursday NBA Multi
Bucks +8.5
76ers
$2.99
