Four players enter the top-five of the Brownlow Predictor paying $15+, with our best bet paying $21.
Brownlow Leaderboard
| Player | Votes | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1. N.Daicos (Coll) | 7.00 | $5.50 |
| 2. L.Davies-Uniacke (NM) | 6.00 | $16.00 |
| 2. J.Cameron (Geel) | 6.00 | $21.00 |
| 2. C.Oliver (Mel) | 6.00 | $6.00 |
| 5. J.De Goey (Coll) | 5.50 | $15.00 |
| 5. C.Warner (Syd) | 5.50 | $20.00 |
Best Bet
Clayton Oliver has been our best bet for most of this season, and once again the Demon firms on our leaderboard, but Jeremy Cameron at $21 appears far too good to ignore making the Cat our best bet after Round 4.
Despite the Cats only winning one game so far this season, we have Cameron equal-second on our count on 6 votes. The risk of others stealing votes off Cameron is nowhere near the level of the likes of Daicos at Collingwood, Oliver at Melbourne, or Cripps at Carlton. Excluding Duncan’s one-game sample size, Cameron is ranked equal-fifth at Geelong for disposals with 19.5 per game – borderline midfielder numbers for a key forward, only four disposals per game behind Geelong’s leader this season in Isaac Smith.
With West Coast the Cats’ match-up for Gather Round, if Jezza bags six here we can lock in another three votes for the key forward which will likely see him leading after Round 5.
Lay
Not huge on Patrick Cripps being listed as the fourth favourite for the Brownlow, currently in 11th place on our leaderboard with 4 votes.
We certainly haven’t seen the complete dominance by Cripps so far this season, in which he’ll pick up the three votes for his Round 3 efforts, but no guarantee to poll outside of that.
With Sam Walsh set to return, this will help the Blues continue their strong start to the season but will not help Cripps’ back-to-back Brownlow chances.
Value Bet
There’s two key reasons behind taking Jordan Dawson at $67 – the potential rise of the Crows this season, and his move into the middle.
You could make a case that the Crows should be 4-0 so far this season, and hosting Carlton this weekend before facing the Hawks in Round 6, there’s a chance Adelaide move to 4-2.
We currently have Jordan Dawson equal-12th in our count with 3.75 votes after a best-on-ground performance on the weekend, and over the last fortnight he’s attended centre bounce over 55% of the time. Off the back of his efforts in their win over Fremantle, expect Dawson to stay in the guts and could become a surprise poller come Brownlow night.
