The Dockers host the Magpies to kick off AFL Round 9 with the latter resting four of their key players for the big trip west.
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Best Bet
Collingwood resting Pendlebury, De Goey, Maynard and Mihocek creates plenty of uncertainty, so the safest play here is the under.
Freo night games at Optus have long been strong unders bets, with an incredible 22 of 26 going under for an average total of just 133 points.
Collingwood are the best defensive team in the AFL this season, conceding only 68 points per game. Importantly, Maynard is the only rested player from their back six, and he is likely to be replaced by the experienced Jeremy Howe.
Freo have also been solid defensively this year, giving up the equal second fewest points per game at 75. They are coming off a dismal showing against St Kilda, scoring just 33 points. They have also lost their best offensive midfielder in Hayden Young for an extended period with a hamstring injury.
Each of the last seven night games between these sides have gone under. Expect another low scorer here.
Same Game Multi
Josh Daicos should enjoy the expansive Optus Stadium. He’s had 30+ touches in four of his last five games.
Steele Sidebottom has had 25+ in four straight games and should gather plenty of pill in what is expected to be a tight, contested game.
Tim Membrey averages two goals per game from his last five against Freo and will be more of a focal point with McStay and Mihocek out.
Value Bet
There will be a lot of midfield minutes up for grabs here for Collingwood, with Pendlebury averaging 60% centre bounce attendance this year and De Goey, 32%.
Ed Allen and Lachie Sullivan look the two players most likely to benefit so each could have a breakout game for ball-winning.
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