The Cats continue to win in unconventional ways and will have to do so again in order to beat the Demons at the MCG on Saturday night.
Best Bet
The under looks an outstanding bet when the Cats and Demons meet at the MCG on Saturday night.
The Dees are once again the leading defence in the league, only having allowed 464 points through seven games, a miserly 66 points per game.
As good as the Cats have been offensively, it’s hard to see them posting a big score against the Dees. Melbourne have a good record against the Cats forwards and are one of the few teams who have personnel to match up with the likes of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron.
The Dees should also be able to dominate the clearances in this game, given the Cats extreme weakness in this area, and that combined with the Dees relatively offensively, should keep the Cats forwards in relative check.
It’s also hard to see the Dees forwards getting on top here. Melbourne are relying on Daniel Turner and Jacob Van Rooyen as key forward options, not exactly the twin towers of Curnow and McKay who had success against Geelong last week. Tom Stewart is a welcome addition to the visitors side as well.
Four of the last five games between these two sides have gone under. Dees games at the MCG have gone under at a 62% clip since 2021. Games where the Dees are outsiders go under at a 64% rate.
Six of eight Dees games have gone under this season. Only three of Geelong’s eight have, but as the old saying goes, styles make fights.
Chips in the under.
Same Game Multi
Both teams allow relatively high numbers of disposals. The Cats rank third and the Dees fifth.
Max Gawn has been relishing full time ruck work this season and has had 20 or more in four of seven. He loves playing the Cats. Kozzy Pickett attended 43% of centre bounces against the Tigers last week and responded with 20 disposals.
For the Cats, Tom Stewart has had 20 or more in every game he has finished this season.
Value Bet
Like the Dees to win this. In the last four years they have won ten of fourteen as outsiders. They have the match ups to trouble the Cats and their losses to Geelong in the last two years have been at Kardinia Park, the MCG is a much different story.
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