Medvedev just claimed the scalp of Sinner in the Quarter Final, can he take another when he faces the defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz?
Daniil Medvedev vs Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz has Medvedev’s measure across their career, but backing up from the French Open I just haven’t been convinced with the Spaniard’s tournament so far. A genuine battle against Tiafoe who has been out of sorts since last year’s US Open, a tight contest against Humbert before finding himself on the ropes early against Tommy Paul in the Quarter Final down a set and a break.
Paul doesn’t have the weapons or ability of Medvedev, which gives the Russian a massive chance despite the price.
An area of concern for Alcaraz has been his serve – in 25 wins prior to Wimbledon this year his serve points won percentage was at 70%, with points won on first serve percentage at 75% but the last three matches the Spanaird has been well down in these metrics.
| Opponent | Serve Points Won % | 1st Serve Points Won % |
| Tiafoe – R3 | 67% | 71% |
| Humbert – R4 | 59% | 66% |
| Paul – QF | 65% | 66% |
Medvedev showed versatility in his win against Sinner changing his return position and he’ll need to do the same again against Alcaraz. With the Spaniard playing below par by his lofty standards, this makes for a long game handicap line and great value for the Russian to take out last year’s champion, while over 6.5 total breaks for the match at $2.10 also looks a bet.
Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic
There are too many concerns surrounding Djokovic for me to think this will be a regulation victory for the Italian. The recovery from a knee injury plus holding his abs on multiple occasions against his demolition job of Rune certainly will bring Musetti in play to take a set or two.
Musetti enters this Semi Final coming off a five-set win over Taylor Fritz while Djokovic had the De Minaur walkover, but the Italian still might be the fittest player left standing despite his time on court. His return of serve points won numbers have been strong, comparable to Djokovic despite playing Fritz and Perricard – both players inside the top-7 for service points percentage won over the last 12 months.
The Djokovic serve has really carried him through to this point of the tournament, but Rune was his only real scalp and the Dane didn’t show up. The way Musetti is playing against these quality servers, he can really make this difficult for Novak.
Djokovic does lead the head-to-head 5-1, but Musetti took him to five sets at Roland Garros last month and beat him in Monte Carlo last year. The Italian must enter this Semi Final with some confidence that he can take it to Novak – don’t know whether he’s capable of winning over five sets, but he can definitely take a set and force the games over 34.5.
