Canberra are heavily favoured to maintain their spot at the top of the ladder against a Dragons team that has been hit by injury but don’t undersell the Red V in this one.
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Best Bet
Canberra are the better team in this one, no doubt, but given their recent form and their record as a big favourite, this line looks way too big.
The Raiders are on the march to the minor premiership but since their bye they have been underwhelming in close wins they did not cover in against Wests Tigers and Newcastle.
Betting around the current line also factors in here. The Raiders have covered just two of seven as a double digit favourite while double digit favourites cover at just 36% during the Origin period. On the flip side, interstate underdogs of 10 or more during the Origin period cover at 67%. The Dragons have covered 18 of 27 getting a start of eight or more.
Games between these two have also been close. The last four meetings have all been by double digits. The last four in Canberra have all been one-score games.
Chips in the plus.
Same Game Multi
Tyrell Sloan has nine tries in 11 games this season and now he has been granted permission to talk to other clubs, will be using this game as a sales pitch so should be at his best.
Simi Sasagi has been flying of late with three tries in four games and he is again set for an 80-minute starting role.
Value Bet
Jacob Liddle has an excellent tryscoring record this year and we will stick with him even though he is starting from the bench. He has six tries this season from 14 games with all of his tries coming when he started from the pine.
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