Warrnambool is Australia’s greatest jumping carnival and all the tips you need to back a winner over the sticks are here. We’re expecting relatively firm going for the first day, but, being the Bool, anything can happen weather wise.
Nobody covers the Bool like Betseeker! Check out our jumps and flat Warrnambool racing tips for all three days of the carnival now.
Race 1 – Maiden Hurdle (3200m)
Nothing would really surprise here.
I can see why Portland Jimmy is a short priced favourite but I couldn’t back him at anything close to the current odds. The gelding has never raced beyond 2000m. His trials have been fine but races are different. Aaron Kuru is a fine rider in New Zealand but for whatever reason that success has not translated to this country.
Beachgoer is probably the most appealing of the first starters, although Lord Pierro’s trials have been good.
The one I have backed is Periscope. He has an experience edge on his rivals having had one start over hurdles for a second placing at Ballarat towards the end of last season. Unfortunately his rider Daniel Small is only having his second ride over jumps which lowers the confidence, but the $23 which went up originally was a great price and he is still backable at $14.
Zouy’s Comet and The Beehive are not without a chance either.
I’ve backed Periscope and could end up backing three or four of them depending on prices, especially if Portland Jimmy keeps up taking a large percentage of the market.
Strategy: Back Periscope and Lord Pierro at better than $10, as well as Zouy’s Comet and The Beehive if you can get better than $15. Take exotics around those runners as well.
Race 2 – Maiden Hurdle (3200m)
Quite keen on Mighty Oasis here. He was disappointing at his first jumps start last season but vastly improved at his second, only going down narrowly behind Cernan. His trials his time in have been very good and he gets the 3Kg claim for Aaron Mitchell which is a gift for such an accomplished flat rider.
Beefeater is one I am keen to take on for the same reasons as Portland Jimmy (doubtful stayer, rider) and Count Zero certainly has the right profile for a jumper but his trials have been very lackadaisical and it’s hard to get a handle on him.
Hakuna Matata, Zedstar and Joshua Reynolds are not without claims.
Strategy: Back Mighty Oasis at better than $4.00.
Race 3 – Maiden Hurdle (3200m)
Killourney has been impressive in his trials and is a very smart flat performer. Even money is probably a fair enough price and I wouldn’t be surprised if you got a touch shorter on the day.
Hey Happy was backable at the $15 which he opened at but is well enough found at $7.50 now.
Lady Fiorente has come up a massive price at $51, you have to place a lot of faith in her last start second placing but she is worth a small spec at those odds.
Strategy: Back Killourney, small 1×4 saver on Lady Fiorente.
Race 6 – Brierly Steeplechase (3450m)
What a race. A top field has been assembled for this year’s edition. A comment for each runner as follows.
1. Bit of a Lad
Remarkably lines up at this carnival for the sixth straight year. Ran second in this race last year and won it in 2019. Loves this circuit. Right in it once again.
2. Police Camp
Outclassed here. Some chance on Thursday if he backs up into the Annual.
3. Britannicus
Smart chaser but his problem is he needs it no worse than about a Soft 5. Fourth pick for mine but a fair way behind the top two in the pecking order.
4. Valac
Did the job in brilliant style first up at Pakenham. Has now had four starts over jumps for three wins. Well in with 65Kg. The one to beat.
5. Vanguard
Ex-Kiwi with immense promise. Did a great job to win his first jumping start in this country by seven lengths, albeit not beating much. Only a 5 year old with 12 starts (flat and jumps) so his best is probably a year away.
6. Magnanimous Man
Not the worst here. He was a very smart hurdler in NZ a couple of seasons ago and his recent trial around this track was excellent.
7. My King’s Counsel
Well and truly outclassed.
8. Once Were Lost
Still a jumping maiden and likely to remain so.
Brierly Steeplechase Tips
1. Valac
2. Vanguard
3. Bit of a Lad
Strategy: Back Valac.
