Having lost five of their past seven, the Bombers are in desperate need of a win against the Saints on Saturday at Marvel.
Best Bet
The wheels are coming off the Bombers campaign and the Saints, experiencing a late season renaissance, are an excellent bet with the points.
Essendon have only won two of their last seven and those wins have been against the Eagles and Magpies. Their defence has been particularly poor, having given up more than 80 points in all seven games and more than 90 in five of them.
A team that allows Adelaide to score nine goals in a quarter is really not a serious finals contender.
It’s a big contrast with the rock solid Saints defence that has allowed more than 82 points three times for the entire season.
While Essendon did beat St Kilda when these sides met in Round 3 it was off the back of dominance at clearances, and that area of the game has dropped off enormously for the Bombers.
This should be a tight contest throughout and with the points, St Kilda are the play.
Insights
🏡 St Kilda at Home: St Kilda has been strong at home, achieving 2 wins in the last 2 games and 3 wins in the last 4 games.
📉 Essendon at Docklands: Essendon has struggled at Docklands, with only 1 win and 0 covers in the last 4 games. Their games also lean towards the under, with 7 total unders in the last 9 games. 🏟️
🛡️ St Kilda Off a Win: After a win, St Kilda games tend to be low-scoring, with 6 total unders in the last 7 games and 8 total unders in the last 9 games.
Same Game Multi
Both of these sides have a tendency to go under at Marvel. Seven of the Bombers last nine and six of the Saints last seven have gone under. That includes their game earlier this year.
The Bombers defence is leaky, but the Saints don’t have the scoring power to exploit it.
Wanganeen-Milera has had 25 or more in nine straight against teams other than West Coast.
The last time Parish had less than 20 other than due to injury was 2021. Dylan Shiel has been in good form with 20 or more in three straight since coming back into the side.
Value Bet
Mason Wood has returned to the Saints forward line and has found form with two and three in the last couple of weeks. Looks good value to hit the scoreboard again against the Bombers leaky defence.
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best AFL tips, predictions, same-game multis, and more, for each game of the 2024 AFL season.
