The series is square and a sold-out Suncorp will host a compelling decider.
Best Bet
Considering the talent at Brad Fittler’s disposal, it is remarkable that the Blues will send out this line up for the series decider. Latrell Mitchell passed up the opportunity, which was highly unfortunate. Payne Haas is hurt. Both omissions were more or less unavoidable for the Blues.
What was avoidable though was leaving out the Blues best from the opener in Jack Wighton, selecting plodding prop Jordan McLean to debut at 30 and sticking with Siosifa Talakai while making Jarome Luai untouchable. The Blues made positive changes for the second game. The courage Fittler showed there was missing at the last selection meeting.
Queensland have, however, been dealt a much crueller hand. Covid hit the team last Friday and it will see Cameron Munster and Murray Tuilagi miss. Munster is a huge loss. Man of the Match in the opener, he held the key to success in the decider. Queensland have also lost Felise Kaufusi but his replacement Tom Gilbert seems ready-made for Origin, and able to make the same immediate impact as Reuben Cotter and Patrick Carrigan.
Game two was always going to go the Blues way. They were ambushed in the opener and surprised by the officiating. They were ready for the second game and the pressure comes off Ashley Klein after he swung the refereeing well and truly to the Blues side. We have a blank slate for game three and the best guess is Klein will pocket the whistle and it will favour the more cynical Maroons.
Suncorp is a huge advantage, naturally, for the Maroons. The Blues won 26-0 at the ground last year in the infamous Paul Green series but Queensland had won seven of the previous eight at Suncorp. The Maroons have won seven straight Game 3s at Suncorp, five of which were deciders. In the last 14 ‘live’ games at Suncorp, the Maroons have won 13.
Queensland should have been favourites before the withdrawal of Munster. New South Wales now go in heavily favoured – and deservedly so – but this line does look too big at home so the plus remains the play.
Betseeker has Origin covered with our picks for Man of the Match.
Same Game Multi
None of the last six games in Brisbane have topped 34 points while two of the last three deciders have finished on 34 or less. The under is the play at the high line of 38.5.
Selwyn Cobbo is in elite tryscoring form for the Broncos with 10 tries in his last six games and scoring at least one in each of those. With two Origin games under his belt his confidence will surely see him go looking for the ball a lot more in the decider.
Value Bet
Centres have scored four of nine Queensland tries over the last two series and Valentine Holmes has certainly seemed the more threatening of the two centres. Holmes scored in the opener and then made a key break in Game 2. Holmes has 10 tries in 12 games for Queensland and has six tries for the Cowboys this season.
Betseeker Special
The Queensland plus is the bet for Origin III but with the line so big and New South Wales likely to win the Betseeker Origin special sees James Tedesco feature with a massive $9 on offer about him scoring and winning Man of the Match honours.
Betseeker Bingo
Betseeker have crunched the numbers and put together an incredible special for Game 3 of State of Origin courtesy of our friends at TopSport.
For the bet to win, at least seven out of the ten events must happen.
- Matt Burton to score a try
- Selwyn Cobbo to score a try
- The first try to be converted
- The first try to be scored in the first ten minutes
- The last try to be scored in the last ten minutes
- A penalty goal to be scored
- Nathan Cleary Player Performance 65+
- Valentine Holmes Player Performance 50+
- Isaiah Yeo Player Performance 55+
- Kurt Capewell Player Performance 45+
We’re getting a massive $4.50 about this bet with a maximum wager of $200. So jump on the TopSport website to get on and ride every run, pass and try in Game 3 of Origin!
Betseeker’s expert tipsters have you covered for the best State of Origin tips & predictions for each game of the series.
