AFL Tips – Essendon v Adelaide – Round 4 2022

The Bombers are much better than their ladder position indicates.

Best Bet

Essendon -14.5 ($1.90)

The Bombers can get their season going with a win over Adelaide. 

Essendon is currently 0-3 and on the bottom of the ladder but no team has had a tougher draw, coming up against Geelong, Brisbane and Melbourne. 

They stayed in the contest against Melbourne for a long time last week and the 29 point margin wasn’t reflective of a game that was still in the balance well into the fourth quarter.

Essendon will be heartened by their recent record against the Crows, having won their last four by an average of 25 points. They have also covered in six of their last seven games at Marvel. 

Adelaide famously beat Port Adelaide by a goal after the siren last week but after the Power’s meek capitulation on Thursday night, that form looks much less impressive. 

Essendon utterly dominated Adelaide when they played last year, and their aggressive corridor heavy style is capable of putting up a lot of points under the Dome. 

The Crows are conceding a score from 51% of opponents inside 50s this season, the worst rate in the league. 

Don’t be surprised if Essendon wins by a big margin. 

Same Game Multi

Essendon 25+ Margin / P.Wright 2+ Goals / J.Rachele, A.Perkins 1+ Goal

Keen on Essendon to win here by a big margin, which should see two metre Peter get involved in the scoring. Perkins had a big game against the Crows last year while Rachele looks a star in the making and can continue to hit the scoreboard.

Value Bet

Essendon 60+ ($8.50)

Adelaide have failed to cover in six of their last eight coming off a win and everything points to a down performance here. Essendon held Adelaide to its lowest ever score at this venue last year.

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Tim is a wagering industry veteran, having spent more than a decade at Sportsbet, BetEasy, TAB and William Hill working in trading and content.