The Lions look set for their first AFL Grand Final in nearly two decades in what could become a very one-sided Preliminary Final.
Best Bet
It’s hard to see Carlton kicking a big enough score at the Gabba to get near Brisbane.
Both teams boast terrific midfields. The Lions and Blues are ranked #1 and #3 respectively for clearances and #4 and #2 respectively for contested possessions in 2023. Brisbane are fresh off scoring a mammoth 81 points from clearance against Port Adelaide’s vaunted midfield while Carlton’s bulls are ranked #1 for scoring from clearance at +25.8 points per game in 2023.
Defensively both teams have been great in the back-half of the year with Carlton conceding the fewest points of any team since Round 14 at 68 per game while Brisbane are ranked fifth at 75 per game, despite playing each of the other top six offensive teams in the last 12 games.
If this proves to be the stalemate around the ball and defensively that the numbers suggest it will, then Brisbane’s firepower up forward should prove decisive.
The Lions are the competition’s best offence, averaging 98 points scored this year, jumping to 103 at the Gabba. Carlton are ranked 14th at 74 per game. Against top eight teams, Brisbane are again #1 at 100 per game while the Blues are 14th at 68 per game.
If Carlton are to kick a big enough score to challenge Brisbane then Charlie Curnow will need a massive night in front of the sticks but his numbers are concerning. The reigning Coleman medalist has kicked just one goal in each of his two finals and only scored a single goal again when the Blues faced the Lions back in Round 8. He was matched up against Jack Payne on that occasion, who is out for this match.
Behind Curnow on 80 goals in 2023, it falls to the wayward Harry McKay (27 goals), Matt Owies (27 – dropped) and Jack Martin (24) to hit the scoreboard. Brisbane, meanwhile, have three players who have kicked 40+ this season and seven who have kicked 20+. The home side’s breadth of goal-kicking options is simply on another level.
Carlton’s formline is also a worry despite winning 11 of their last 12 games. On every metric aside from the scoreboard they were beaten by Melbourne last week, they scraped by a very fortunate finalist in Sydney the week prior, lost to GWS the week before that and beat the Suns by just four points after a horror first-half in Round 23. The Lions have won three straight against top six teams by an average of 24 points.
Brisbane are also 12-from-12 at the Gabba in 2023, winning by an average margin of 37 points. They’ve covered the line in seven of their last eight against Carlton at the venue, with the Blues’ last win coming in 2013.
The Blues’ only hope is to turn this into a dour, low-scoring struggle but perfect conditions at the Gabba rarely result in that sort of match. They look to be carrying more than a few injured players too with all of Cripps, Weitering, Docherty and Acres appearing to be playing hurt. The Lions have played just once in 26 days.
It’s been a wonderful run for Carlton, but it looks set to end, and potentially end badly, on Saturday.
Same Game Multi
We’re predicting Brisbane to play this game on their terms which makes the over a terrific bet. Each of the last seven games at the Gabba between these teams have gone over and games at the venue between top eight teams average 181 points this year and 175 over the last three seasons.
The Lions’ smalls love this match-up. Zac Bailey has kicked eight goals from his last two games against the Blues while Charlie Cameron has nine from his last three. He’s also kicked 17 in his last five finals.
Lincoln McCarthy has a goal in eight straight games.
Value Bet
Small margins typically become big margins in Prelim Finals as the reality of missing out on a Grand Final berth dawns on the vanquished team.
This weekend has produced blowouts more often than not in recent years with an average margin of 41 points over the last six seasons. Five of the last 12 prelims have been decided by more than 60 points while only four have been decided by less than 20.
If Brisbane are able to get on top early and contain Charlie Curnow, then this could spiral very quickly.
As mentioned, Bailey loves this match-up, kicking four in each of his last two games against Carlton and is a monster price to repeat that effort on Saturday.
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