The third round is here, and although Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz is coming off a straight sets win in the second-round, expect a much bigger challenge ahead. See all our Wimbledon betting previews here.
Best Bet
Thought we might get more of a challenge by Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor last match against Carlos Alcaraz, but we can definitely expect German Oscar Otte to take it to the Spaniard in the third-round.
Otte is 7-2 on grass this year with wins against the likes of Denis Shapovalov, Karen Khachanov, and Miomir Kecmanovic – his two losses came at the hands of Daniil Medvedev and Matteo Berrettini, emphasising that he’s right up there on this surface.
With a somewhat similar style to Jan Lennard Struff who took Alcaraz to five in the first-round, Otte enters this very fresh with his second-round opponent retiring four games in. The +5 game handicap is my best, while $3.45 for the win is worth a bet.
Next Best
We will need two tie-breakers in this and the match going to at least four sets to cover the 42.5 total games line, and with John Isner serving at one end we’re backing it in.
Looking at Isner’s total games at Wimbledon in recent times, they’ve covered 42.5 total games in six of his last seven matches. From Isner’s 30 matches at Wimbledon, all 15 that have gone to at least four sets have covered 42.5 total games so we’re banking on the fact this will be a contest with Jannik Sinner.
The Italian is not most comfortable on the grass courts, but on talent alone he’ll enter this as favourite – Sinner’s two matches so far have gone to four sets, and we should expect a similar outcome in this match.
Jelena Ostapenko has been outstanding so far this tournament, but her temperamental nature means that her third-round opponent Irina Camelia Begu is well and truly a chance to cause an upset.
Ostapenko has a 12-9 record against top 50 opposition this year, and from her last her last nine matches against players in the top 50 she’s covered the +5 game handicap just twice.
Begu has won both matches across their career including in 2018 when the Latvian was ranked 5th in the world, and with the Romanian producing a 17-11 record this year she’s more than capable of taking a set in this and covering the game handicap.
Value Bet
The 41st ranked Shuai Zhang has gone about her business in style so far this tournament without dropping a set, winning as an underdog against Marta Kostyuk in the second-round.
She’s up against Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia who has had a small career revival over the last fortnight winning in Bad Homburg before getting past Emma Raducanu in the second-round in straight sets.
Despite this, Zhang appears way overs in this match currently paying $2.07 – the Chinese has won their last two matches in straight sets including in March on the hard courts of Lyon, while the Raducanu scalp for Garcia is slightly misleading based on the Brit’s form this year.
Daily H2H Multi
Van Rijthoven / Norrie / Riske / Juvan = $4.34
