Tennis Tips – US Open Day 5 Tips

Ajla Tomljanovic

Could we see the last of Serena Williams on Day 5 of the US Open? An Australian is a huge chance of spoiling the fairytale.

Best Bet

Matteo Berrettini -3.5
Line - Andy Murray vs Matteo Berrettini

It’s been a highly interrupted 2022 for Matteo Berrettini which has seen his ranking slip to 14 in the world, but reality is the Italian is still playing high quality tennis and is in Championship contention.

Berrettini has a 23-9 record this year – he reached the Semi Final of the Australian Open and then produced a 9-0 grass court season before being ruled out of Wimbledon a day before his first-round match due to covid.

The Italian has beaten Andy Murray on both occasions that they’ve met since last year, and with the Scot’s body now not quite up to the rigours of Grand Slam tennis, he hasn’t reached a Round of 16 since 2017, it’s hard to see him competing with someone of Berrettini’s quality over a best of 5.

Next Best

Shuai Zhang -3
Line - Rebecca Marino vs Shuai Zhang

Fantastic match odds for Shuai Zhang in this at $1.52 which should be a staple in your Day 5 multis, along with taking the -3 game handicap.

Entering the US Open in good lead-up form, the Chinese has had no trouble in her opening two rounds and faces Canadian Rebecca Marino in the third round.

Marino enters this off the back of beating two opponents ranked outside the top 100, and historically really struggles against top 40 opposition – she’s 4-22 across her career, and in the last two years that record is 2-9. This should be an easy watch.

Shelby Rogers +3.5
Alternate Line - Ons Jabeur vs Shelby Rogers

It was just last year when American Shelby Rogers came from nowhere to defeat Ash Barty on the way to a Round of 16 appearance, and she gets a great look at Ons Jabeur.

Coming off the Wimbledon Final where the Tunisian let slip her maiden Grand Slam title, she hasn’t quite been the same with a 2-3 record entering the US Open with question marks surrounding her fitness.

Jabeur has put together an incredible three-year block, but her form on hard courts during this period has not been a strength. The Tunisian is 3-6 this year on the surface against top-40 opposition, and dating back to 2020 that record is 22-23. With Rogers entering the US Open off the back of reaching the Final in San Jose, she can cause an upset here – happy to take the +3 game head start.

Liudmila Samsonova -5.5
Line - Liudmila Samsonova vs Aleksandra Krunic

Liudmila Samsonova is a huge chance of going the distance this US Open. In a run similar to what we saw from Barbora Krejcikova heading into last year’s French Open, Samsonova enters Flushing Meadows winning her last 10 matches and has now extended that run to 12 wins after ousting last year’s Runner-Up Leylah Fernandez in the second-round in straight sets.

The Russian will now face Aleksandra Krunic who is coming off a second-round win over Krejickova, but this is where her run ends. Krunic has never been a great hard-court player, and since 2018 against top-100 opposition she’s 9-29. Against top-50 that record becomes 6-17.

The Krejcikova scalp is certainly nowhere near as strong as it was last year, and Samsonova should cover the -5.5 game handicap without breaking a sweat.

Value Bet

Ajla Tomljanovic
Win - Ajla Tomljanovic vs Serena Williams

The Australian can put an end to the Serena Williams fairy tale in what probably is the biggest match of Ajla Tomljanovic’s career.

Since June, the Australian has an 18-6 record including a Quarter Final run at Wimbledon plus reaching the Quarter Final stage in Cincinnati coming from qualifying. Across this recent run, Tomljanovic has beaten the likes of Paula Badosa and Veronika Kudermetova, and is in much stronger form than Serena’s two previous opponents.

Plenty of hype around Serena’s second-round win over Anett Kontaveit being the second seed, but reality is that Kontaveit might be the worst second-ranked player we’ve seen this century. The Estonian is now 5-7 on hard court since March, and lost to Tomljanovic in straight sets in the first-round of the French Open this year. The Australian has the game to put an end to one of the best tennis careers we’ll ever witness.

Daily H2H Multi

Berrettini / Shuai Zhang / Samsonova / Kudermetova = $3.02

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Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.