Tennis Tips – US Open Day 3 Tips

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Our Day 2 guide provided punters with a $4.34 multi, along with a win for our value selection and there’s much more to come. See our outright US Open betting previews here.

Best Bet

Total Games - Jack Draper vs Felix Auger Aliassime

20-year-old Jack Draper appears the real deal and will make a match of this when he faces world number 8 Felix Auger Aliassime. Off the back of his Quarter Final run at the Montreal Masters, Draper beat Emil Ruusuvouri in the first-round in straight sets – no mean feat against the improving Fin.

FAA advanced in four sets to open his US Open campaign, and of the top-50 players in the world in 2022 is fifth in terms of tiebreakers per set at 26.4%. 12 of his last 16 Grand Slam matches against top-100 opponents have gone to 4 or more sets, and all 12 have gone over the 38.5 total games line.

Based on Draper’s recent form, and how FAA drifts in and out of matches at Grand Slam level, this should be going to four sets and if that happens in an FAA match, it’s covering 38.5 total games.

Next Best

Beatriz Haddad Maia
Win - Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Bianca Andreescu

Clearly Haddad Maia, our pick for the tournament, is going under the radar still despite putting together an impressive 2022. She only needed an hour to get past her first-round opponent with a double bagel, and despite this demolition she’ll enter as underdog against Bianca Andreescu.

The 2019 Champion likely enters this as favourite on reputation alone, but the Canadian has had another disruptive year with only 24 matches under her belt, and just five of those on hard courts going 3-2.

The Haddad Maia form line reads extraordinarily well – a finalist in Toronto, the Brazilian has a 44-17 record this year including 20-10 on hard courts, and since 13th April when her win streak commenced, she’s gone 31-9 including a 6-2 record against top-20 opposition. She’s the real deal – take the match bet, the $8.50 to win Quarter 3, and $22 for the US Open Championship.

Madison Keys -3.5
Alternate Line - Madison Keys vs Camila Giorgi

Keys comes into this game off a great run in Cincinnati, making the semis, and a straight sets opening round win. She looks well placed against the Italian.

Keys holds a 4-2 career over Giorgi, including winning their last two meetings in 2018, but it’s the 2022 form of Giorgi which is a concern with a 16-15 record including 7-7 on hard courts.

Since reaching the Round of 16 at the US Open in 2013, the Italian has a horror record at Flushing Meadows – this will be just the fourth time in her last nine appearances she’s advanced to the second-round, and with the hard court being Keys’ best surface she shouldn’t have any issues covering the 3.5 game handicap.

Christian Garin +8
Alternate Line - Christian Garin vs Alex De Minaur

Perhaps we have short memories – it was less than two months ago when Alex De Minaur threw away a two-set lead in the Wimbledon Round of 16 against Chilean Christian Garin, and they meet again.

The Australian moved on very quickly winning the hard court event at Atlanta, but the +8 game handicap for Garin appears far too long after winning their last meet on the grass. De Minaur should get his revenge, but Garin is good enough to force four sets in this which should be enough to cover the game handicap.

Sebastian Korda
Win - Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Korda

It’s been a somewhat underwhelming year for 22-year-old Seb Korda which promised so much after a breakout 2021, but with a solid hard-court lead-up at both Washington and Cincinnati he appears to be back on track for when he faces fellow American Tommy Paul.

Paul had a sensational week in the Montreal Masters with wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Marin Cilic, but after a genuine five-set battle with the 79th ranked Zapata Miralles in the first-round along with his career record against Korda, Seb appears a good bet in this.

Korda beat Paul on three occasions last year – twice on hard court, and with a much easier first-round should enter this match the fresher of the two and confident of beating his fellow countryman.

Value Bet

Daria Snigur
Win - Daria Snigur vs Rebecca Marino

Fair to say, there would be very few people that had heard the name Daria Snigur as recent as last week. But the 20-year-old Ukrainian has just about did the impossible with her first-round defeat of Simona Halep – the second favourite pre-tournament and the best bet of many tennis pundits entering the US Open.

Snigur enters the second-round facing Canadian Rebecca Marino and we get $2.50 for the Ukrainian despite her first-round heroics. There’s barely anything between these two players in the rankings, with Snigur 11 years the junior of Marino – seems like a no-brainer.

Daily H2H Multi

Van De Zandschulp / Carreno Busta / Garcia / Shuai Zhang / Keys = $4.26

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Few know the NBA like Dale, who has spent years backing winners for punters across a number of publications and podcasts. He also specialises in tennis and AFL.