AFL Tips - Brownlow Medal 2026 Outright Picks

The 2026 Brownlow Medal will be awarded on Monday 21 September in Melbourne, five days out from the Grand Final, with Nick Daicos the $1.01 favourite to take out a long-deserved first Charlie. However, there is a key stat that may still mean an upset is on the cards. Here are the outright and place picks for the biggest individual award in the AFL.

How to Pick a Brownlow Winner

There are some tried and tested strategies for finding a Brownlow winner. Here’s what history tells us:

1. Only back midfielders

This one is obvious to all footy fans. The last non-midfielder to win was Scott Wynd in 1992, and Matt Rowell kept the streak going last year. No Max Gawns, Luke Jacksons or Toby Pinks.

2. Winning teams win Brownlows

It’s no surprise to learn that players from successful sides attract more votes. Only four of the last 28 winners came from teams that missed finals. The net is wider than it used to be now the top 10 play finals, but it still crosses off Zak Butters, Harley Reid, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, Harry Sheezel and last year’s winner Matt Rowell. It’s worth noting Collingwood only snuck in ninth, so under the old top eight this rule would have scratched Nick Daicos too.

3. Stick to the standouts

Be wary of teams with multiple contenders pinching votes off each other. Only two of the last 12 winners had a teammate also finish in the top 10. This is where Daicos sits pretty. On Dabble, there is no other Collingwood player under 500-1 to win the Brownlow, while Bontempelli, Smith, Cripps and Ashcroft all have teammates at least in the market.

4. Roughies don’t win

The longest-priced winner in the last 20 years was Matt Priddis at $41. Rowell tested it last year as only the fifth favourite, winning by seven votes, however Betseeker readers knew that he was a much better chance. Stick to the favourites for outright betting, but certainly look at the roughies in other markets as there have been some very strange results in recent years.

5. The big one: contested possessions

This is historically the ticket to Brownlow glory. Since 2008, every Brownlow winner has finished top six in contested possessions. This year’s top six are Patrick Cripps, Clayton Oliver, Lachie Neale, Max Gawn, Harley Reid and Jai Newcombe. Notice there is a key name missing there.

The Daicos Conundrum

And there’s the problem. Daicos is $1.01 and he ranks 20th for contested possessions. Bailey Smith, the $12 second favourite, is 16th. Marcus Bontempelli is the best of the leading contenders at eighth.

So one of two things happens on Monday night. Either an 18-year trend breaks, or the shortest priced favourite in living memory gets rolled. Daicos was 24th on this list last year and still finished second by seven votes, so it isn’t quite the automatic disqualifier it once looked, especially with such a freak player.

Daicos hit 30 or more disposals on 17 occasions this season, averaged 37 in Collingwood’s 12 wins, and set a new single-season record for coaches votes. The case for him ending the streak is strong.

The New Variable

Here’s the wildcard nobody can price. From 2026, field umpires are handed approved Champion Data statistics in 16 categories after each game before they vote, a first in the medal’s history. Every rule above is built on 18 years of umpires voting on feel, and feel has typically rewarded the bloke winning the hard ball under their nose. That may no longer be the case.

Winner

Nick Daicos

Brownlow Medal Winner

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$1.01

Daicos was the Betseeker pre-season Brownlow pick at $5.00 and it would be an all-time shock to see anyone seriously challenge the Collingwood star. The little champion is favoured by 13 votes on the AFL.com.au predictor, 9.5 votes on ESPN’s and nine on Betfair’s. The only caveat, as mentioned, would be his historically low contested possession count, but the umpires receiving stats may favour the more balanced and outside mids more. Obviously not worth backing at $1.01, but will be winning.

Value Bets

Patrick Cripps

Top 3

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$6.00

The Carlton skipper is one of the great vote-pigs, racking up a record 45 votes in his 2024 Brownlow win. His stats this year aren’t too far off that season and he was enormous in the Blues’ rampage in the back-half of the season. If the contested possession rule holds up, then Cripps is a great bet to finish on the podium, especially over second-favourite Bontempelli, who has underperformed in the last two counts.

Jai Newcombe

Top 5

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$6.00

Hawthorn are an incredibly even team and there is going to be a lot of votes to give for a top four team that won 14 games with two draws. Newcombe has finished 17th, 10th and 20th in the last three counts and had his best year for contested possessions, importantly finishing in the top six.

Luke Davies-Uniacke

Top 10

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$13.00

LDU is a real umpire favourite, polling 18 votes in the second half of 2024 in a team that only won two games. The Roos mid has never played in a nine-win season and clearly had his best year for score involvements, one of the 16 stats the umpires will have access to this season.

Exotics

Nick Daicos/Bailey Smith/Patrick Cripps

Boxed Trifecta

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$10.00

Nick Daicos/Patrick Cripps

Exacta

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$21.00

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Editor in Chief

Frankie McDonald

Frankie has spent more than two decades working in the Australian wagering industry and is widely regarded for his expertise in AFL, NRL and horse racing tips.