Geelong and Carlton meet at the MCG on Friday night in their first finals clash since 1995, with the winner into a semi final and the loser done for 2026.
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Best Bet
There are two very clear directions this match can take.
All things being equal, Carlton are right in this match. They are the one team Geelong did not want to meet here, having won and covered in four of the last five against the Cats.
That included their Round 12 meeting this year, where Geelong led by as much as 20 points in the second quarter before the Blues ran over the top of them.
The Carlton midfield has really troubled the Cats. They have won clearances in the last four meetings, and by more than 10 in three of those games.
The potential inclusion of Max Holmes could be enormous, as will the defensive role of Oisin Mullin. Josh Fraser is planning for Holmes to play, having flagged the running capacity he brings alongside Bailey Smith as a real challenge, while Mark Blicavs also returns after being managed in Round 24.
Carlton’s momentum is difficult to ignore, going 12-2-1 since Fraser took over with 10 covers in those games. Aside from a slow start, their win over Melbourne last week was clinical.
The Blues do have their own fitness questions, with Will Hayward pushing to return from an ankle problem and Nick Haynes in doubt after needing a jab at half time to get through the wildcard final.
The wrinkle in all of this, of course, is the extra week’s break for Geelong. It is hard to gain much idea on how much the extra game and a six day break will impact the Blues, but in the VFL, the rested team has gone 5-1 in elimination finals with an average margin of 64.5 points.
That aside, Carlton should be right in this game.
Same Game Multi
There’s a chance that Mullin could go to Cripps, Walsh or even Jagga Smith, so steer clear of the Blues star mids.
Bailey Smith is just a possession machine. He enters September off 30 or more in three straight and had 35 in the earlier meeting with the Blues.
George Hewett is the Blues mid who could stand up if his teammates are contained, having had 25 or more in four of his last five.
The Blues have been vulnerable against small forwards lately and Mannagh enters finals in great form.
Value Bets
If the Blues are out of gas then the 40 or more for Geelong is a great saver against the best bet. There have been plenty of big margins in VFL elimination finals after wildcards, and the Fraser train could come to a sudden halt.
Mannagh has made the most of his extra midfield time in the Max Holmes absence, kicking three in each of his last two games. He has kicked seven goals in five finals and can be a big game player, having famously kicked six in a VFL grand final to earn his spot in the big leagues.
Assuming he plays, Hayward was in great form before missing last week’s wildcard game. He kicked nine goals in the final four games of the regular season including two bags of three, plus 3.1 last time against the Cats in Round 12.
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